Progress Illinois

Amy Tauchman had no special affinity for DuPage County. In some ways, she just ended up there. It was the late 1980s and she and her husband were looking for some more space for their budding family. They considered moving to Evanston, a town whose residents largely aligned with their politics, but the home prices were too lofty. The south suburbs were out -- Tauchman had reservations about living too close to her in-laws from Oak Lawn. So they compromised and chose Glen Ellyn, a fairly affluent suburb about 20 miles west of Chicago.

Tauchman knew that the county had a reputation as a conservative stronghold, or as she describes it, a place where people “don't like rocking the boat.” She even embraced that hunkered-down attitude herself while raising three young children. But when her kids were old enough to attend school, she realized how ingrained Republican culture really was.

“In 1998, I did some work at the school around what I would call attitude integration, where we stopped calling it Christmas Break and started saying winter,” she remembers. “I was very amazed at the backlash.” According to Tauchman, residents were incensed and PTA meetings turned into vitriolic affairs marked by weeping parents and screaming matches.

Even in casual settings, it was tough to avoid GOP talking points. “The Republican culture … was so oppressive that people gave up trying to have conversations about [politics],” she says. “They would go to parties and just assume everybody is a Republican and walk away never knowing that half the people in that room were Democrats.”

But two weeks ago, Democrats came out of the woodwork in Illinois’ 14th congressional district -- which includes sections of DuPage -- to propel upstart candidate Bill Foster into Congress. It was a stunning victory given the GOP's historical dominance in the region, and one Democrats maintain is a bellwether for congressional races nationwide. While that's unclear, Foster's win certainly illuminates the Democrats' rising influence in Chicago's collar counties, townships where changing demographics and Republican missteps have drastically altered the political landscape. And for lefties on Chicago's periphery, the best may be yet to come.

Swing city

Before Florida and Ohio, there was the Land of Lincoln. For much of the 20th century, Illinois represented the nation's archetypal swing state, voting for the winning presidential candidate in 22 of 25 elections. Downstate independents often decided the races as Chicago's infamous Democratic machine was counterbalanced by the stalwart Republicans in the surrounding suburbs.

How best to describe the denizens of the collar counties? Many of these residents rejected Chicago's bustling urban lifestyle and New Deal politics in favor of open spaces, lower taxes, and cultural conservatism. Tauchman says many of her neighbors fully embraced the classic stereotype of suburban life. “There were still remnants of that 1950s feeling,” she says. "That's never the reality anywhere, but I think DuPage County basked in the pretenses of that reality for a longer period of time than was accurate."

Republican members of Congress, like the outspoken pro-lifer Henry Hyde and the strict supply-sider Dennis Hastert, appealed to these voters through what DePaul University political scientist Larry Bennett calls “19th century small government Republicanism.” Collar county suburbanites wanted their legislators to stave off the rush of urbanization, both culturally and economically, and for decades, the Illinois Republicans placated those concerns. Of course, they were rewarded with votes, too. Even as late as 1988, the Cook partisan voting index (PVI) – which measures how strongly a congressional district leans toward one political party compared to the nation as a whole -- showed the GOP with enormous advantages in Kane County (13.4), DuPage County (18.7), and McHenry County (19.7).

But a Democratic tide has been developing since the early 1990s and has greatly accelerated recently. In Congress, Foster will join moderate businesswoman Melissa Bean from Illinois’ 8th district, who in 2004 ousted arch-conservative Philip Crane, then the longest serving Republican member of the House. At the state level, Lake County has elected Democrats to three of its five state senate seats, key victories in establishing the party's first veto-proof Senate majority in 70 years. Republicans’ dipping advantage in PVI is another indicator of the Democrats' rising popularity; since 1988, the GOP edge in the DuPage and Lake Counties’ PVI has nearly been cut in half, while those in Kane and McHenry Counties have also dropped significantly.

This year's presidential primary turnout numbers are equally revealing. Statewide precinct reports show that more than twice as many Democrats cast presidential preference ballots than Republicans -- 1.99 million to 893,376 -- and those trends held up in Chicago's Northern and Western suburbs. Democratic voters outnumbered Republicans by 6,000 in Kane County, 2,210 in McHenry County and a whopping 23,500 in DuPage County.

New voters, old tricks

What accounts for the sea change? Demographic trends tell part of the tale. For one, immigrants have been moving into the collar counties with mounting frequency. Census data shows that the number of foreign-born U.S. citizens rose by nearly 38 percent in the suburbs between 2000 and 2005, jumping almost 50 percent in DuPage County and doubling in Will and Grundy counties. Many of these imports are of Latino origin, especially around Aurora and Elgin, and while they don't constitute a monolithic voting bloc, a December Pew Research Center poll found that 57 percent of Hispanic registered voters lean Democratic while only 23 percent align with the GOP.

The transformation of Chicago's regional economy from one dependent on manufacturing to one focused on service and technology has also benefited Democrats. Professionals with graduate degrees have flooded the collar counties, particularly the wealthier suburbs in Lake and DuPage counties, drawn by high-tech jobs and new cosmopolitan amenities. While their migration patterns mirror that of their suburban forbearers, demographers like Ruy Tuxiera report that their politics differ widely from past generations; most are pro-choice, skeptical of religious fundamentalism, and open to taxation. Not surprisingly, Democrats have been successful in attracting this new suburban constituency. “Urbanization has occurred and the [suburban] populations are more diverse than they used to be,” says Bennett. “I think that some of the Democratic politicians who have become more successful in suburban areas have recognized some of these changes and have been astute in the ways they've presented themselves.”

Republicans themselves deserve some of the blame for losing grip in their collar county wheelhouse. At the national level, the party's failed war policy and its southern shift, best exemplified by its hard-line stances on immigration, choice, and gay marriage, have alienated moderate Republicans, many of whom hail from Northeastern and upper-Midwestern suburbs. “Bush made it possible for people to say this agenda is completely messed up,” says Tauchman, “and it does not represent at all what I have understood our country to be, in DuPage or anywhere else.”

The state party hasn't fared much better. Dogged by corruption scandals that drained the party of fundamental resources, Republicans have had difficulty recruiting quality people to run in competitive races. In a bind, they've turned to self-funded but deficient candidates that lack a complex understanding of Illinois voter's changing preferences. Jim Oberweis' nativist immigration ads certainly contributed to his loss in the 14th special election, as did David McSweeney's opposition to stem-cell research in his 2006 race against Bean.

Down-ticket effect

When one considers the number of competitive congressional races occurring in the collar counties this November, these patterns are heartening for Democrats. Along the North Shore, Democrat Dan Seals is likely to improve upon his impressive run in 2006, when he garnered 47 percent against 10th district incumbent Mark Kirk with limited support from the national party. A perfect conduit for the Lake and DuPage County wine-track voters, he’s a strong progressive with a background in business.

Elsewhere in the suburbs, Illinois State senator majority leader Debbie Halvorson is in great position to fill Illinois’ 11th open seat, vacated by embattled Representative Jerry Weller, Bean has a nice cash advantage over Republican contender Steve Greenberg, and Foster has momentum on his side after triumphing earlier this month.

One caveat is a potential Hillary Clinton backlash. A polarizing figure in swing districts, polling suggests that if the Senator from New York was to somehow win the Democratic presidential nominataion, Republican candidates in Illinois may see an unexpected boost. According to a SurveyUSA poll of 600 Illinois registered voters released last week, Clinton trails McCain badly in Chicago’s suburbs, 47 percent to 34 percent. This stands in direct contrast with Illinois’ favorite son, Sen. Barack Obama, who smashes McCain by 20 points in the collar counties, 57 percent to 37 percent. According to Rich Miller of the Capital Fax, the national GOP will “likely abandon the state if Obama is at the top of the ticket, which could cost Republicans about a million dollars in national cash and could lead to some serious legislative blowouts in unexpected places.” If Clinton wins, they’ll at least toss in some token funds.

But Chicago-area progressives shouldn’t fear. At this point, a Clinton win is unlikely, and no matter who wins the nomination, the gains made by Democrats outside Chicago should snowball. “I think [Democrats] always were out there,” says Tauchman, “they just didn't realize it was time to stand up and be counted.”