Stuart Rothenberg, editor of The Rothenberg Political Report, just unveiled his updated "Dangerous Dozen": the 12 "most vulnerable open House seats, starting with the most likely seats to flip." Illinois' 11th Congressional District clocks in at number one:
Illinois’ 11th: State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D) would be a formidable nominee in any case, but Republican prospects weren’t helped when their primary winner, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, dropped out of the race. Local GOP leaders are expected to select businessman Martin Ozinga III to replace Baldermann as the party’s nominee. The district is competitive (President Bush carried it by 7 points in 2004).
Rothenberg highlights the 11th, along with NY-25 and VA-11, as "likely to go Democratic and ... in a class of their own." Congressional Quarterly concurs, listing the race as "Democrat Favored."
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