As questions about his electability swirl, Barack Obama's campaign should take a look at this new Pew Research Center study on young voters:
In surveys conducted between October 2007 and March 2008, 58% of voters under age 30 identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with 33% who identified or leaned toward the GOP. The Democratic Party's current lead in party identification among young voters has more than doubled since the 2004 campaign, from 11 points to 25 points.
From a historical perspective, these statistics are extremely encouraging for Democrats. Here's UC Berkeley Sociology professor Jerome Karabel in the Los Angeles Times:
Studies over the last half a century have repeatedly shown that voter preferences among most people in their teens and 20s have not yet crystallized -- a pattern referred to by social scientists as the "impressionable years" hypothesis. Yet, in response to the key historical events a generation encounters in late adolescence and early adulthood, young people begin to develop more stable political beliefs and party preferences. More often than not, those party allegiances -- even the habit of voting -- will stay with them for the rest of their lives.
Of the two remaining Democratic candidates, Obama is far more popular among so-called "millennials." Harvard's Institute of Politics released an extensive survey on Friday and found that 70 percent of Democrats ages 18 to 24 favor Obama, compared with 30 percent for Clinton. Obama has also attracted a greater share of this demographic in 22 of the 25 Democratic primaries for which exit poll data is available. And in 13 states (including key swing states like Missouri, Virginia, and Wisconsin), he has beat Clinton by margins of greater than 30 points. He does better in head-to-heads with McCain as well:
The institute poll - conducted online among nearly 2,500 respondents between March 11 and April 1 - showed that among young voters, Obama would best McCain by a 50 percent to 29 percent margin, with 4 percent going to independent Ralph Nader and 17 percent undecided.
If Clinton were the nominee, she would beat McCain by a 41 percent to 34 percent margin, with 7 percent supporting Nader and 18 percent undecided.
There's no way of knowing whether these new Democrats will stay home if Clinton wins the nomination. Considering that turnout among young voters has been growing substantially since 2000, it's plausible that young people would race to the polls to vote for either candidate. But Obama's appeal among this portion of the electorate is staggering, as are the record number of young people who have already cast votes in the Democratic primary. Given the enduring allegiance Democrats could ensure, it's something uncommitted superdelegates should strongly consider.
Lee (not verified) on Thu, 08/28/2008 - 00:17
Obama supporters keep chanting the mantra of how Barack Obama
is the candidate who can unite our country ... but, Obama couldn't
even unite his own party ... even after winning the nomination. And,
in reality, McCain has the history of working across the aisle in congress.
Obama has brainwashed his followers into making decision based on 'belief', rather
than reason ... just as he learned in Jeremiah Wright's church ... you can lead people through the power of BLIND faith. Even his campaign solgan is based on belief, not common sense, logic, or reason. Obama's even got his followers publicly denouncing the importance of experience ... as if that's the reason Bush performed poorly ... when the real reason Obama and his followers denounce experience, is because
Obama doesn't have any.
Keep America Strong ... Elect Senator John McCain in November !!!
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