On a conference call today, Clinton strategist Geoff Garin touted Hillary's 24-point margin among white voters in North Carolina, claiming that she and Obama "started even" among the white electorate there. But while Garin suggests that Clinton steadily chipped away at Obama's white support in NC, the numbers just don't bear that out.
According to polling conducted in the state at the onset of the two-person race (shortly after John Edwards dropped out at the end of January), Obama and Clinton were far from "even":
A February 6 Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey showed Clinton with a 17-point lead against Obama among whites.
A February 12 Survey USA poll showed Clinton with a 19-point lead against Obama among whites.
According to Survey USA's subsequent polling, Clinton consistently held a large margin among white voters (the closest Obama got was a 17-point deficit on March 11):
March 11: Clinton 52%, Obama 35%
April 8: Clinton 53%, Obama 31%
April 21: Clinton 56%, Obama 33%
April 28: Clinton 61%, Obama 30%
May 4: Clinton 62%, Obama 32%
Same goes for PPP. With the exception of one poll in mid-April showing Obama only down by five points among whites, Clinton generally held a lead in the teens to mid-20s in this demographic:
March 3: Clinton 56%, Obama 33%
March 17: Clinton 56%, Obama 30%
March 30: Clinton 53%, Obama 36%
April 6: Clinton 47%, Obama 38%
April 13: Clinton 51%, Obama 35%
April 20: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%
April 27: Clinton 56%, Obama 35%
May 4: Clinton 60%, Obama 34%
Perhaps Garin was referring to polling conducted when the race officially "started" in early 2007. But back then, Obama was getting support from less than 20 percent of the white electorate, while Clinton's numbers were generally in the mid-30s (with the rest of the vote was distributed among the other declared Democratic candidates).
For more on the Clinton campaign's flawed "white voter" argument, check out this post from Monday.
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