Republican congressional candidates here in Illinois have plenty of reason to worry about their fate this November, particularly with Barack Obama on the top of the ticket. Over the course of the spring, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee expanded its list of targeted races in the state to include Judy Biggert's 13th District and the 18th District seat being vacated by Rep. Ray LaHood. Another race worth keeping an eye on is the 19th District, represented for 12 years by GOP Rep. John Shimkus (who last year, for those who may have forgotten, compared the Iraq war to a Cubs-Cards game).
His 27-year-old opponent, Daniel Davis, was profiled in today's St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
At 27, Daniel Davis has no elective experience, little money, and, it would seem, little chance of unseating incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. John Shimkus in a three-way race this fall.
But Davis, a Democrat, is spending the next several months trying to persuade Southern Illinois voters to give him a shot in Congress, instead of sending Shimkus back to Washington for a seventh term. [...]
Davis has no paid staff — only volunteers — and has been staying with siblings and other family members who live throughout the district when he travels. He acknowledged that he is at a disadvantage in fundraising and name recognition, and he is putting the focus on a grass-roots approach to try to compensate.
"A lot of it is getting around talking to people … sitting down talking to people and saying, 'What's your story?'" Davis said.
To be clear, Davis is just as the Post-Dispatch headline labels him: a "longshot." But depending on the mood of the electorate as the general election season progresses -- not to mention the turnout improvements spurred by Obama's 50-state voter registration drive -- there will very likely be some longshot victories come November.
Check out the numbers in the 19th:
During the competitive primary in 2006, 33,390 voters in the district cast ballots for one of the two Democratic candidates (on par with Democratic participation in previous primaries there). Later that year, Shimkus won by just under 50,000 votes. But during this year's primary, 68,158 district residents pulled Democratic ballots -- more than twice the number in 2006.
That surge can be attributed to a mix of newly registered Democrats, Republicans-turned-Democrats, and Democratic voters who generally skip primaries. The respective percentages are unknown. But clearly the Democratic enthusiasm and energy seen across the country this year is to found downstate as well.
Philosophe Forum on Thu, 05/22/2008 - 08:00
Where on Earth have you been the last 10 yrs? Chicago Dems will never let Central & So. IL escape the evil that John Shimkus rains down. Keeping an incompetent GOP moron like Shimkus in office keeps the Chicago Dems in power. That's all they want: no political power south of I-80.
ALISON, MPA
http://philosopheforum.blogspot.com/
"Responsible Leadership Serving the Public Trust"
Josh Kalven on Thu, 05/22/2008 - 09:43
I'm aware of the structural impediments to a candidate like Davis winning in the 19th this election year. And they are infuriating.
All I was saying is that, nationally speaking, there are going to be some surprises this year, in which candidates with all sorts of cards stacked against them are nonetheless swept into office.
Do you doubt that Shimkus-Davis is going to be closer than Shimkus-Stover?
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