Washington Post staff writers Alec MacGillis and Jennifer Agiesta may not read the work of our humble Progress Illinois crew, but if they did, they could have written today's front-page piece on Barack Obama's efforts to expand the black vote months ago. Here's an excerpt:

At the heart of the Obama campaign's strategy is a national effort to increase registration and turnout among the millions of Democratic-inclined Americans who have not been voting, particularly younger people and African Americans. The push began during the primaries but expanded this month to a nationwide registration drive led by 3,000 volunteers dispatched around the country.

Gaining greater African American support could well put Obama over the top in states where Democrats have come close in the past two elections, and could also help him retain the big swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan.

"Over the top"? Sound familiar? That's because it's the same argument we put forth in May using Nate Silver's electoral simulation engine and regression model. The Tribune ran with the theory in June as well. Here's a clip from our piece:

The Rust Belt states are the first to catch your eye. According to the baseline, if 2008 turnout levels mirror those in 2004, McCain is predicted to win Ohio by 1.6 percent. But when you increase African-American voters by 20 percent, the state tips towards Obama, giving him a 0.3 percent margin of victory. Push that up to 30 and 40 percent and his edge increases to 1.2 and 2.1 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, in neighboring Pennsylvania, a 30 percent hike in black turnout would boost Obama’s predicted margin of victory from 1.3 to 3.4 percent, and in Michigan from 1.3 to 4.4 percent. [...]

While 18-24 year-olds are spread rather evenly across all 50 states, Poblano points to Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota as states with traditions of high youth turnout. His baseline currently has them all in Obama’s column. But if young voters flock to the polls come November – as they’re expected to – these three states could end up far out of McCain’s reach.

Interested in playing with Silver's raw, state-to-state numbers? Download the spreadsheet here.

Image used under a Creative Commons license by Flickr user Barack Obama.