PI Original Adam Doster Wednesday July 30th, 2008, 9:53am

Marin Hypes Obama's "Woman Problem"

Yesterday, at a downtown luncheon headlined by Michelle Obama, NBC5's Carol Marin found a variety of women who strongly supported Barack
Obama for president. Even Paula Wolff, a longtime aide to GOP Gov. Jim
Thompson, expressed her support
for him, saying it was the first ...

Yesterday, at a downtown luncheon headlined by Michelle Obama, NBC5's Carol Marin found a variety of women who strongly supported Barack Obama for president. Even Paula Wolff, a longtime aide to GOP Gov. Jim Thompson, expressed her support for him, saying it was the first time she has supported a Democratic presidential candidate "publicly." But Marin also spent some time chatting with an old friend who expressed a different view of Obama:

A few hours after leaving the "Women for Obama" luncheon, I ran into Sarah, not her real name. I've known her for a few years. A single mom, she free-lances, working as many jobs as she can to support two growing boys. She dreams of a permanent gig with benefits, but it's still just a dream.

A 37-year-old Democrat, she is also a college grad and a news junkie who has watched this campaign like a hawk. She surprised me with her anger Tuesday, saying she's voting for McCain.

To Sarah, Barack Obama is like the organic chicken at lunch. Sleek, elegant, beautifully prepared. Too cool.

Pivoting from this anecdote, Marin points out that while Obama led John McCain 55 percent to 36 percent among women in a July 15 Quinnipiac University poll, "the margin was far smaller among independent women, who preferred Obama by just three points, 45 percent to 42 percent." She also notes an AP/Yahoo News survey which "found that just 12 percent of former Clinton supporters say they are excited about Obama."

But context matters! As Frank Rich reminded us in June, John Kerry only won women voters by three points. Al Gore? Eleven points. That puts Obama's lead in stark perspective, especially considering that he holds a wider advantage among this group than either Kerry (47 to 46 percent) or Gore (50 to 41 percent) did at this stage in 2004 and 2000, respectively. And among Independent women? Pew says he's also in good shape:

In particular, Obama is running better among politically independent women than did either Gore or Kerry at this point in their campaigns. Independent women now favor Obama over McCain by a 47%-to-36% margin; four years ago Kerry and Bush were tied among independent women (45% each) and, eight years ago, Bush held a 13-point lead over Gore among this group (52% vs. 39%).

Granted, there are still a significant number of undecided women out there. So why would they decline to support John McCain? For one, his record on women's issues is absolutely atrocious. Women also favor withdrawal from Iraq and universal health care -- both opposed by McCain -- in larger numbers than men.

To Marin's credit, she does mention that Clinton supporters at the luncheon acknowledged they have far more differences with McCain than they do with Obama. But if you're going to write a piece that provokes this headline -- "Women Voters Aren't Warming To 'Cool' Obama" -- some historical perspective is important.

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