Yesterday, we highlighted estimates of the growing Democratic advantage in voter registration. Although we've spent a good deal of time documenting the electoral effects Obama's "Vote For Change" campaign could have this November, the Obama campaign itself reportedly thinks both the mainstream media and the Republican Party have missed the boat entirely. The Telegraph (of London) pulls this quote from a campaign insider:
"Public polling companies and the media have underestimated the scale of new Democratic voters registration in these states," the campaign official told a friend. "We're much stronger on the ground in Virginia and North Carolina than people realise. If we get out the vote this may not be close at all."
The campaign is confident they could net between 330 and 340 electoral college votes by the time this sucker is over and their skepticism about mainstream polling models is apparently the basis for this optimism. For more on how using the 2004 turnout model skews polling data, check out our post from last Thursday.
Anonymous (not verified) on Tue, 09/30/2008 - 15:29
I keep wondering about polling numbers. Do they only call people who have home telephones? What about the hundreds of thousands of young people who eschew land lines for cell phones? Are they ever counted in the polls? I live with Voip and a cell phone and have never been polled.
I think that the pollsters are going to have to start from scratch on their polling techniques. I know MANY young people who have no telephone, except a cell phone, who are strong Obama supporters.
Josh Kalven on Tue, 09/30/2008 - 15:38
The short answer: some pollsters are starting to incorporate more cellphone users, while other aren't.
Check out this post for more detail:
http://progressillinois.com/2008/09/21/cellphone-effect-polling
Richard Donaldson-Alves (not verified) on Tue, 09/30/2008 - 15:54
The polls have not included the huge young base - the base that has demonstrated their preference for the candidate who thinks carefully before charging off blindly - preference for the candidate is honest - preference for the candidate who has a better grasp of what the young element of the population are feeling. That candidate is certainly not our septuagenarian.
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