PI Original Adam Doster Tuesday September 30th, 2008, 2:16pm

Obama Campaign On Underestimating New Voters

Yesterday, we highlighted
estimates of the growing Democratic advantage in voter registration.
Although we've spent a good deal of time documenting the electoral
effects Obama's "Vote For Change" campaign could have this November, the
Obama campaign itself ...

Yesterday, we highlighted estimates of the growing Democratic advantage in voter registration. Although we've spent a good deal of time documenting the electoral effects Obama's "Vote For Change" campaign could have this November, the Obama campaign itself reportedly thinks both the mainstream media and the Republican Party have missed the boat entirely. The Telegraph (of London) pulls this quote from a campaign insider:

"Public polling companies and the media have underestimated the scale of new Democratic voters registration in these states," the campaign official told a friend. "We're much stronger on the ground in Virginia and North Carolina than people realise. If we get out the vote this may not be close at all."

The campaign is confident they could net between 330 and 340 electoral college votes by the time this sucker is over and their skepticism about mainstream polling models is apparently the basis for this optimism. For more on how using the 2004 turnout model skews polling data, check out our post from last Thursday.

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