Wow. Big news today out of Michigan. The McCain campaign has announced that they're pulling all staff out of the state and redistributing them to Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida.
So taking that into consideration, let's have a look at the current map. What emerges is that McCain is being forced to defend the following Bush states: Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. Meanwhile, with Michigan abandoned and Pennsylvania looking increasingly out of reach, there are only two Kerry states that stick out as possible GOP pick-ups and they're both in our neck of the woods: Minnesota and Wisconsin.
On the topic of Wisconsin, it's worth reading this New York Times piece from last weekend about the pushback pro-Obama union leaders are experiencing among voters there. Also of note is a new Research 2000 poll out showing McCain with only a one-point lead in Indiana.
Meanwhile, Rich Miller linked to this TPM article that quotes AFL-CIO deputy political director Mike Podhorzer discussing the current electoral environment at length. The gist:
Podhorzer stressed that he is impressed by Obama's gains and is convinced Obama is on track to win right now. But he said that the union's interaction with battleground-state voters, combined with extensive internal polling, indicate that this dynamic is anything but fixed and that there's much more fluidity than is generally acknowledged.
Podhorzer ascribed the fluidity to two factors: The uncertain and rapidly shifting political landscape created by the financial crisis, and the relatively little time Obama has spent as a politician in the national spotlight.
"Low information voters who haven't been following this don't know very much about Obama, in a way that might be different from other elections," he said. "Voters are saying, `I really don't want another four years of this, but I don't know much about him."
I think this is a pretty obvious point, but nonetheless an important one to keep in mind. Public opinion is moving in Obama's direction, no doubt. But that doesn't mean that the support he's gaining is by any means solid. A serious gaffe, or a mini-controversy, or certain unforeseen events couldn't swing things back the other way.
NC Reader (not verified) on Thu, 10/02/2008 - 13:25
Josh:
Nice writeup. I would just add North Carolina as another "Bush state" McCain is now having to defend. Recent polls have had the two tied and even Obama up by one or two percentage points, so we are being bombarded with commercials here. Also, Elizabeth Dole is finding it very possible she might lose her Senate seat here to the previously almost unknown Kay Hagan. Being in the state less than 20 days in the last few years, plus being ranked 93rd in effectiveness in the Senate, will do that to you.
If we in NC go for Obama, it's gonna be a rout come Nov. 5.
Josh Kalven on Thu, 10/02/2008 - 14:01
Thanks for the heads up. Totally meant to include NC in the list. I've added it above.
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