A new poll released late yesterday by Roll Call and conducted by Survey USA (FiveThirtyEight's second highest rated pollster) found Democrat Dan Seals leading GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by eight points in the 10th Congressional District, 52-44 percent.  From the write-up (subscription required):

SurveyUSA, an automated polling firm, conducted the surveys for Roll Call on Saturday and Sunday (WHAS-TV in Louisville was a partner on the poll in Indiana’s 9th district). Each poll tested more than 600 voters and had an error margin of roughly 4 points (for complete details, see chart at right). [...]

Kirk has thrived politically despite the liberal lean of his suburban Chicago district. But Seals, running with little help from the national party, came within 7 points of the Republican in 2006. But the DCCC is playing in the district this year, and Kirk saw it coming: He has raised an astounding $4.6 million for the race so far.

But even that amount of money might not be able to get Kirk past Seals in what is shaping up to be a Democratic year, especially with a Chicago Democrat at the top of the ticket. In the SurveyUSA poll, Obama led McCain in the district 62 percent to 36 percent — a margin that’s 20 points greater than Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) margin over Bush in the 2004 White House election.

The Survey USA poll comes on the heels of a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll released over the weekend that put Seals behind by six (and sent the Kirk campaign into a tizzy).  Archpundit notes that Kirk came in at 44 percent in both polls and suggests a possible reason for the disparity in Seals' numbers:

Survey USA’s technique are robopolls and so they tend to push everyone to a choice even if they are undecided.  What this could (all caveats again) be saying is that the undecideds are leaning Democratic.

Seems like a reasonable conclusion.