Progress Illinois

Bennett, Petts, & Normington for Progress Illinois. 10/15-16.  Likely voters. MoE 4.9%:

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50%
Martin Ozinga (R): 29%
Undecided: 22%

The 11th Congressional District poll conducted for Progress Illinois by the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington found a 21-point lead for Democrat Debbie Halvorson, similar to the 19-point gap in the internal poll she released on Friday (which included Green Party candidate Jason Wallace).  

Republican Marty Ozinga's unfavorables (30%) continue to outweigh his favorables (20%), which certainly spells trouble. Independents made up 42 percent of the polling universe in our poll and they also appear extremely wary of Ozinga, with only 14 percent saying they support him and 41 percent still on the fence. 

While Barack Obama posted an 11-point lead in the district, an identical number of independents remain undecided on the presidential race.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich's numbers mirror those in our 10th District poll, with only 10 percent holding a favorable view of him.  Meanwhile, 38 percent of respondents were unaware of the constitutional convention question on the Illinois ballot this year.  Of those aware, 29 percent supported the idea of holding a Con-Con and 44 percent opposed it.

More detail below.

Methodology:

This is a telephone survey among 400 registered voters in the 11th Congressional District of Illinois who are likely to vote in the general election in November 2008. The survey was conducted from October 15-16, 2008 by trained, professional interviewers following procedures established by Bennett, Petts & Normington.

All polls are subject to errors caused by interviewing a sample of persons, rather than the entire population. In 95 cases out of 100, the responses to this survey should fall within plus or minus 4.9 percentage points of those that would have been obtained from interviewing the entire population of likely voters in the 11th Congressional District of Illinois. The sampling error for subgroups of the survey will be greater.

The data have been weighted by age and race to better reflect the composition of the electorate.

Partisan breakdown:

Democrats: 33%
Republicans: 25%
Independents: 42%

Head-to-head toplines:

Favorability ratings:

Halvorson
Favorable: 31%
Unfavorable: 17%
Neutral: 16%

Ozinga
Favorable: 20%
Unfavorable: 30%
Neutral: 16%

Obama
Favorable: 55%
Unfavorable: 32%
Neutral: 9%

McCain
Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 37%
Neutral: 12% 

Blagojevich
Favorable: 10%
Unfavorable: 74%
Neutral: 11%

Presidential numbers:

Barack Obama (D): 49%
John McCain (R): 38%
Undecided: 13%

Issues:

I’m going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me which one you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM that you would like to see your next representative in Congress do something about?

The economy and jobs ..................................... 45%
The financial crisis ............................................ 17
The war in Iraq .................................................. 8
Gas and energy prices ...................................... 8
Health care ........................................................ 7
Illegal immigration ............................................. 7
Taxes ................................................................. 5
(DON'T KNOW) ................................................. 4

On the constitutional convention, we first asked respondents if they were aware that the question was on the ballot this year:

First, are you aware or not aware that this November voters in Illinois will be asked to decide if we should hold a constitutional convention, for the purpose of preparing a new state constitution?

Aware: 62%
Unaware: 38% 

If aware, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE Illinois holding a constitutional convention?

Support: 29%
Oppose: 44%
Undecided: 27%