Progress Illinois

In a year when the Republican presidential candidate went down in flames and Democrats extended their majorities in both the House and Senate, “Drill Baby Drill” was about the only victory conservatives lawmakers garnered in Washington. It seems like ages ago when a coterie of House Republicans staged a congressional sit-in to protest what they deemed the “Pelosi shutdown”—the decision by Democrats to adjourn for August recess without first voting on offshore drilling legislation. The melodramatic rallying cry (Illinois' own Rep. Don Manzullo called it “America’s greatest hour”) proved effective. Facing pressure from Republican lawmakers, Blue Dog Democrats, and a riled public frustrated with soaring gas prices, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic leadership let the 27-year offshore drilling moratorium expire without a fight.

What did Republicans learn from the experience? According to The New Republic’s Eve Fairbanks, they saw a "blueprint for the future". From her latest article:

The House right-wingers concluded from the drilling victory that conservatism needn’t compromise ideologically in order to win—just the opposite. It’s a lesson they’re eager to apply to Barack Obama’s economic schemes, like health care reform and the huge infrastructure stimulus package. Rather than accepting the implications of John McCain’s recession-driven loss—that Americans, perhaps, might be growing weary of Republican economics—the conservatives intend to trigger a popular revolt, like the one they provoked over drilling, against Democrat-led socialism itself.

One thing to remember is that the budget is out of whack for very specific reasons. Anti-spending screeds should ring hollow if they fail to mention two issues critical to the nation’s record deficits: excessive military spending (the U.S. military budget accounts for approximately 54 percent of discretionary spending, excluding war spending) and tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. President Bush has championed these objectives throughout his presidency and House conservatives have stood by his side every step of the way.

But to engage with Fairbanks’ larger point, I’m skeptical that a conservative revolt against the “socialist threat” of big government will sidetrack a federal stimulus bill or health care reform in 2009. Last summer’s energy debate was dominated by a very specific confluence of factors—the congressional schedule, gas prices, and a catchy but intellectually dishonest catch phrase. But on the larger issues currently facing the country, the wind is blowing against conservatives. The economy needs a significant boost and the public desperately wants the government to fix the nation’s health care system. No dramatic gestures about government spending will alter those dynamics.

How will Congressional Republicans from Illinois approach an Obama administration? Republicans in districts where Obama is popular (Reps. Mark Kirk and Judy Biggert come to mind) will certainly face pressure to side with the president. Like Kirk did during negotiations over the financial bailout, they will use their yea votes as leverage to advocate for small-bore conservative reforms within Democratic-favored bills.

Fairbanks is correct to assume that the some right-wingers (Reps. Peter Roskam and Aaron Schock seem like obvious candidates here) will use the energy debate as a guideline for the next two years. As Nate Silver wrote yesterday, the incentives for House Republicans to distance themselves from these government expenditures are high:

The public loves Obama, whereas that® beside your name is still causing you problems, especially when every Newt and Bobby and Sarah out there is perfectly happy to throw you under the bus. Fact is, you’re not going to get the benefit of the doubt. If the stimulus package is seen as a success, you aren’t going to get an ounce of credit for it. But if it’s seen as a failure, you’d better make damned sure that you’ve distanced yourself from it.

It’s a dicey move. But until Republicans put the games aside and think critically about what conservative economic policies have done to the country, this may be the most rational legislative approach.