PI Original Josh Kalven Friday December 11th, 2009, 10:13am

Trib Poll Shows Brown And Preckwinkle Leading Stroger

Thanks to the Tribune, we finally have a survey of Cook County Democratic voters on the county board president primary -- and it doesn't bode well for incumbent Todd Stroger.  The poll found that Dorothy Brown leads the four-candidate pack with 29 percent support, ...

Thanks to the Tribune, we finally have a survey of Cook County Democratic voters on the county board president primary -- and it doesn't bode well for incumbent Todd Stroger.  The poll found that Dorothy Brown leads the four-candidate pack with 29 percent support, followed by Toni Preckwinkle with 20 percent, Stroger with 14 percent, and Terrence O'Brien with 11 percent.  Here are some crosstabs (from the Tribune's full memo):

Looking at the name identification results, it's clear that both Preckwinkle and O'Brien have a lot of room to grow their numbers -- if they can raise enough money to get on the airwaves, that is.  The poll found that 62 percent of respondents had heard of Preckwinkle, while 51 percent knew O'Brien.  By contrast, Stroger and Brown were recognized by 98 and 91 percent of the respondents, respectively.

The survey also appears to discount the theory that O'Brien will easily capture most of the white vote while the other three candidates will split the African-American electorate.  As you can see, white respondents went more heavily for Brown and Preckwinkle, though that might balance out as his name identification rises.

Here is the response to the poll from the Preckwinkle campaign:

"We are exactly where we expected to be at this point in our campaign. We entered this race 11 months ago and have been building positive momentum since. We are confident that, as voters continue to hear Toni Preckwinkle's message - her commitment to repeal the Stroger sales tax increase and bring real reform to County government, that we will win the only poll that matters - on election day.

Our own recent polling shows that Dorothy Brown had a 2:1 name recognition advantage. Yet polling shows even though voters know her, they are unconvinced she deserves a promotion."

In other news regarding the race, outgoing Cook Co. Comm. Forest Claypool told Greg Hinz that he has no plans to endorse in the primary:

Confirming rumors, Mr. Claypool tells me, "I'm not going to get involved in " this year's race for president. Asked directly if he'll endorse anyone, he replied with a one-word answer -- "No" -- and declined to elaborate. "I don't really care to (explain)," he said.

Okay, then.

Finally, the Beachwood Reporter's Steve Rhodes notes some of the troubling stories about O'Brien and his stewardship of the Metropolitan Water Reclaimation District of Greater Chicago.  Rhodes concludes, "Forgive my skepticism, but I think we need to know more about O'Brien before this campaign gets too much farther along."  Let's hope the major dailies dig a little deeper before primary day arrives.

Comments

Login or register to post comments