The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its July jobs data yesterday and the results were pretty encouraging. For the first time in 15 months, the unemployment rate actually fell, from 9.5 to 9.4 percent. Employers only cut 247,000 jobs, about 80,000 less than experts predicted.

What caused the upswing? Some argue that the labor force is shrinking because people have quit looking for jobs in this tough climate and are therefore no longer factored into the Labor Department's jobs report. But Council of Economic Advisers Chair Christina Romer attributes the progress to the stimulus finally kicking into gear. She said in a speech yesterday that the recovery package has been a boon to state and local governments in particular:

But, state and local government spending actually rose at a healthy 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter of 2009. This followed two consecutive quarters of decline, and was the highest growth rate in two years. No one can doubt that the $33 billion of state fiscal relief that has already gone out thanks to the Recovery Act is a key source of this increase.

Will Illinois' unemployment rate, at 10.3 percent in June, follow the national trend? We will find out on August 20, when the July statewide figures are released.