Even though unemployment benefit extensions received heavy bipartisan support last year, some analysts aren't so sure that providing income to the nation's jobless makes economic sense. Take Nina Easton, Washington Bureau Chief for Fortune. This week, she pens a column in Time arguing that extending unemployment insurance prolongs joblessness:
But here's the catch: past studies by academics such as [University of Chicago economist Bruce] Meyer and Harvard's Lawrence Katz show that people are most likely to find a job just as their unemployment benefits run out. Many people use that thin cushion to wait until the last minute to act. They pass up lower-paying, less desirable jobs, or they avoid moving to take a job. Adds [Steven Davis, a leading labor economist at the University of Chicago's School of Business]: "Surveys show people are very pessimistic about this labor market and their job prospects, and they think it's not worth the effort to look. The generosity of benefits makes it easier to take that view." [...]
Politicians should be wary of how the public policy they enact could be reinforcing that misery.
What Easton leaves out of this little assessment are actual figures. According to research by macroeconomists James Sherk and Karen Campbell of the conservative Heritage Foundation, the Obama administration's initial unemployment benefits extension -- from 26 to 46 weeks -- increased the unemployment rate by only 0.22 percentage points. Such a meager uptick seems like a small price to pay to avoid both the economic and psychological costs of breaking the social contract and abandoning the nation's most vulnerable population during the deepest recession in decades. Perhaps Easton should read up on the "veil of ignorance."
But more detrimental to her argument is the fact that Lawrence Katz -- on whose research she relies -- actually endorsed the benefits extension passed last year:
Traditionally, many economists have been leery of prolonged unemployment benefits because they can reduce the incentive to seek work. But that should not be a concern now because jobs remain so scarce, said Lawrence Katz, a labor economist at Harvard.
For every job that becomes available, about six people are looking, Dr. Katz said. “Unemployment insurance gives income to families who are really suffering and can’t find work even if they are hustling to look,” he said.
With the economy still listing, he added, a temporary extension can provide a quick fiscal stimulus. And, Dr. Katz said, when people exhaust unemployment and health insurance, many end up applying for disability benefits, which become a large, unending drain on the Treasury.
Luckily, the Obama administration isn't taking cues from Fortune. Last Sunday, Christina Romer -- chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers -- said the White House favors more action to boost the economy and protect workers, which the Senate is expected to take up following health care:
“The sense that we need to do more is overwhelming,” Romer told George Stephanopoulos on ABC’s “This Week.” “We know there are things that have been working in the Recovery Act that are expiring, like some of the provisions for longer unemployment benefits. Some of the state fiscal relief — I think that’s going to be critically important to making sure we keep making progress.’
The Senate returns to session on Friday.
Comments
Login or register to post comments