Gov. Pat Quinn is in a jubilant mood today, and with good reason.
Moments ago, GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady conceded the
gubernatorial race to the Democrat. Watch a portion of
his concession speech below, courtesy of ABC 7:
Quinn, who defied polling and pundit predictions to win the tight and
expensive campaign in a decidedly Republican year, declared
this morning that he was the "people's governor." It's a mantle he
deserves, having out-hustled his Republican rival in the final days of
Certainly, Illinois faces several daunting and unresolved challenges,
the most important of which is state's budget crisis. Quinn, however,
is an internal optimist. "I will go to work tomorrow as a new governor,"
he told the Sun-Times' Michael Sneed, "who is determined to get
more people working; to bring companies to Illinois; to bring jobs to
families in desperate need of them." We look forward to watching him
Along with Public Policy Polling, Rasmussen Reports was the most
active polling firm in Illinois this cycle. Throughout the summer and
fall, their research consistently gave GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill
Brady a sizable lead in Illinois' gubernatorial race; in the last eight polls the firm conducted, Brady averaged a 7.8 point advantage.
seems now that those figures were wildly inaccurate. While a strong
progressive ground game gave Gov. Pat Quinn a huge edge on Election Day,
it's also probably true that Quinn himself never trailed as badly as some
What explains Rasmussen's poor performance? For whatever
reason, the firm refused to include all of the candidates in their
surveys and thus missed the number of potential Brady voters who decided
instead to support Scott Lee Cohen. But FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver
says the problem with the firm's tactics, which rely too heavily on
"party identification," runs deeper:
We have critiqued the firm
for its cavalier attitude toward polling convention. Rasmussen, for
instance, generally conducts all of its interviews during a single,
4-hour window; speaks with the first person it reaches on the phone
rather than using a random selection process; does not call cellphones;
does not call back respondents whom it misses initially; and uses a
computer script rather than live interviewers to conduct its surveys.
These are cost-saving measures which contribute to very low response rates and may lead to biased samples.
These results are worth keeping in mind next election cycle.
The campaign for GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady has announced a
press conference at 10:30 a.m. to discuss the still-undecided race for
governor. If Brady forges ahead, he certainly has an uphill climb ahead
As of this morning, Gov. Pat Quinn lead by over 8,000
votes statewide. The remaining 70 precincts yet to be counted are all
in Cook County, as well, which tilted heavily in the Democrat's favor.
On top of that, the Cook County Board of Elections told ABC 7 they have
at least 20,000 additional absentee votes still unopened. Chicago
proper reportedly has 6,000 more. Other counties across the state still
need to tabulate provisional ballots, overseas and military ballots,
and mail-in absentees, but the odds are stacked heavily against the
UPDATE (10:52 a.m.): At a news conference in Bloomington this morning, Brady refused to
concede, saying his campaign will wait until the election is certified
by the state Board of Elections
One last video from the campaign trail. Here's Gov. Pat Quinn telling a packed ballroom at the Hotel Allegro his campaign is ahead by 10,933 votes. "I believe we have won," Quinn told the crowd to big cheers. Watch:
The governor's race isn't over, but on a day that saw Republicans win control of the U.S. Senate seat in Illinois and
several congressional districts, Quinn's lead in the early
morning hours of November 3 is a bright spot for state Democrats.