Illinois' 2010 gubernatorial race
may not be over just yet. While GOP nominee Bill Brady has held a
consistent lead in the polls (and still has a 90 percent chance of
winning, according to Nate Silver's regression),
there are two factors that could shake up the race considerably. The
first is the campaign of Scott Lee Cohen, an Independent nominee and
Democratic Party pariah. Ironically, when he's included in polling, the Capitol Fax calculated (subscription required) that Democratic numbers improve. It's possible that his "Republican-styled, anti-tax, budget-cutting, pro-business theme" could peel off some very important potential Brady voters.
The
other x-factor is the undecided population, which leans heavily Democratic.
"If you allocate all of the undecideds who voted for Obama to Quinn and
the ones who voted for McCain to Brady, the Brady lead shrinks to
44-43," PPP wrote in their polling memo. Can Quinn connect with those so-called "Obama voters?" If so, this becomes an entirely different ballgame.
