According to a new survey of likely voters from Public Policy Polling
(PPP), both GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Brady and Republican U.S.
Senate nominee Mark Kirk are leading their Democratic rivals by a small
margin one day before the 2010 elections. In the governor's race, Brady
is edging out Gov. Pat Quinn by five points. Four percent of those
surveyed remain undecided. Below are the toplines (PDF), with the results of their previous surveys in parentheses:
Bill Brady (R): 45% (42%, 42%, 39%, 34%)
Pat Quinn (D): 40% (41%, 35%, 30%, 33%)
Scott Lee Cohen (I): 4% (6%, 6%)
Rich Whitney (G): 5% (3%, 4%, 11%, 9%)
Lex Green (L): 2% (1%, 2%)
In the Senate contest, Kirk is outdistancing State Treasurer Alexi
Giannoulias 46 to 42 percent with 7 percent still undecided. The
results of PPP's previous surveys are in parentheses:
Kirk (R): 46% (40%, 35%, 30%, 37%)
Giannoulias (D): 42% (36%, 37%, 31%, 33%)
LeAlan Jones (G): 3%
Mike Labno (L): 3%
Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP this year, according
to the pollster. Republican voters are also much more unified and
likely to head to the polls. Here is a link to TPM's PollTrackers for
both the governor's race and the Senate race.
(UPDATE 12:23 p.m.): In a poll of likely voters conducted between October 25-30, YouGov found Giannoulias besting Mark Kirk 47-44 for the Senate, and Brady topping Quinn 47-40 in the Governor's race.
(UPDATE 1:55 p.m.): A Fox News poll of likely voters in Illinois' Senate and Gubernatorial contests, results shows Kirk ahead of Giannoulias 46-42, and Brady beating Quinn 44-38.