House Democratic leaders are frantically whipping votes in the final push for health care reform. That means pressure is building on several Illinois lawmakers who remain undecided.
House Democratic leaders are frantically whipping votes in the final push for health care reform. That means pressure is building on several Illinois lawmakers who remain undecided.
First, there's the anti-abortion crowd. That includes Reps. Dan Lipinski and Jerry Costello (pictured right), both of whom have previously indicated that the abortion language in the Senate bill is not strict enough for their socially conservative taste. One of the strongest pro-life voices in the Democratic caucus, Rep. James Oberstar (D-MN), disagrees. Yesterday, he came out in favor of the Senate bill, telling reporters that he is confident its language does not endanger the Hyde amendment, which prohibits federal funding of abortions. "It does what we want it to do," he told Roll Call, essentially undermining Lipinski and Costello's primary criticism of the legislation.
Still, they continue to hedge. In a statement yesterday, a Costello spokesperson pivoted slightly, suggesting that the cost of the bill was now bothering his boss. That was always the concern of moderate suburban lawmakers like Reps. Melissa Bean, Debbie Halvorson, and Bill Foster (pictured left), none of whom have yet made a public commitment on the Senate bill. But if fiscal discipline is their primary interest, today's news from the Congressional Budget Office should ease their worries.
The budget office released a report this morning estimating that the bill -- with the reconciliation fixes added -- will cost $940 billion over the first 10 years and reduce the deficit by $130 billion. In the following 10 years, it will slash the deficit an additional $1.2 trillion. Over 32 million Americans will gain insurance, covering 95 percent of the legal population. "To put this in context," writes Ezra Klein, "that's more deficit reduction than either the House or Senate bill, and more coverage than the Senate bill." In other words, having already voted in favor of the House bill, there is no good reason for these Illinois members of Congress to dissent on this final version.
If they do, they can expect repercussions from their friends in organized labor. "We will pull support for any Democrat who opposes health care and seriously consider mounting primary challenges against them next cycle," says Jerry Morrison, executive director of the SEIU Illinois State Council (who sponsors this website). Those opposing the package will also have to go back to their districts and explain to voters why they ultimately prevented thousands of constituents from receiving affordable and comprehensive health care. According to an analysis by the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, the Democrats' bill would insure 57,500 people in the 3rd District (Lipinsksi), 31,500 in the 8th (Bean), 27,000 in the 11th (Halvorson), 34,000 in the 12th (Costello), and 45,000 in the 14th (Foster).
At 4:30 pm in Belleville today, health care advocates from the religious and labor communities will rally outside of Costello's district office in favor of health care reform. Other actions are expected throughout the remainder of the week before the final vote takes place, likely on Sunday.
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