Sixteen years ago, Chicago Mayor Richard Daley appointed Frank Olivo as alderman of the 13th Ward, a district that covers a rectangular patch of blocks on the city's far Southwest Side. Known for his quiet presence in council chambers, Olivo has been a reliable ally of Daley's, rarely going against the mayor's priorities during critical council votes. During the 2003 and 2007 municipal election cycles, Olivo faced no challengers -- no other candidates questioned his performance in city hall, his attentiveness to community issues, his alliance with the mayor.

Olivo simply will not have that luxury during the current election cycle -- this time around, four other candidates have filed nominating petitions to run against Olivo for 13th Ward alderman.

Hector Gonzales is one of the new challengers. A college and career advisor who's never run for elected office before, Gonzales told Progress Illinois that he'd been thinking about making a run for the seat for several months; Mayor Daley's retirement announcement crystallized his determination to do so.

Daley's "rubber stamps at city council are going to be in danger of losing their positions ... The neighbors say they're ready for change. A lot of the residents don't know who he is," Gonzales said of Olivo. What Gonzales describes as the longtime incumbent's low-profile in the ward has led to a lack of attention on issues like foreclosures and predatory lending.

The 13th Ward campaign isn't the only race drawing a rush of newcomers. In the 47th Ward on the Northwest Side, one candidate challenges Ald. Eugene Schulter in both 2003 and 2007. This time around four people have filed petitions to do so.

"We're not headed in the right direction," said Schulter challenger Ameya Pawar. He cited the parking meter lease, city budgeting practices, tax increment financing policy, and the council's fiscal stewardship broadly as several key motivators for his campaign. "The people we've elected do not seem to have a sense of what's right for us in the long term."

Another candidate, John Arena, announced he'd run against Ald. Pat Levar, the longtime councilman from the 45th Ward, back in March, well before Levar said he'd hang up his hat, citing health concerns.

"I saw we needed a new direction in the ward and in the city over a year ago with the sale of the parking meters and what that exposed about the budget," Arena said.

A new trend

The candidacies of Gonzales, Pawar, and Arena are part of a bigger trend. A Progress Illinois analysis of aldermanic races over the past three municipal election cycles shows unprecedented interest in the city council. In dozens of wards across the entirety of the city, more people want a seat at council than ever before. The uptick in candidates is remarkable.

One caveat before getting to the numbers: we are not making an exact apples-to-apples comparison. For 2003 and 2007, Progress Illinois tallied the total number of aldermanic candidates who made it onto the ballot. For the 2011 elections, right now we currently only know the number of people who have filed to make it onto the ballot and run for council. Some of those folks might not get the chance to stand for alderman. Jim Allen, a spokesman for the Chicago Board of Elections, said 426 objections had been filed against both the would-be mayors, clerks, treasurers, and aldermen. The challenge process begins at 9 a.m. this coming Monday (PDF).

With that said, consider this information:

• In 2003, 146 candidates were on the ballot for the city's 50 aldermanic seats, an average of 2.92 candidates per ward. There were four run-off elections in April of that year;
• In 2007, 175 candidates made the ballot for the 50 seats, for an average of 3.5 candidates per ward. Twelve races went to a second round;
• In 2011, 351 people filed nominating petitions to run for alderman across Chicago. Assume for a moment that all of those folks make the ballot. That would result in an average of basically seven candidates per ward -- basically double the average from four years ago and nearly two-and-a-half times the mean from 2003.

Check out this spreadsheet to see the numbers we culled from the Chicago Board of Elections website side-by-side:

Unless a stunning number of petition objections ultimately prove successful and filers aren't allowed onto the ballot, there are a number of conclusions that seem fairly easy to draw from the data outlined above.

For starters, fewer wards will see a single candidate cruise to victory over a tiny field.

In 2003, 24 aldermen either ran unopposed or faced just one opponent in the primary. Four years later, that number dropped to 17. This year, a mere three councilmembers  -- Alds. Richard Mell (33rd Ward), Patrick O'Connor (40th Ward), and Brendan Reilly (42nd Ward) -- are running unopposed. And there's only one ward -- the 44th -- in which two candidates have filed to run.

Secondly, in wards across the city, it's a near certainty that many more races will go to a run-off in April, required when no one candidate gets at least 50 percent of the ballots in the first round of voting.

In 17 wards, there are six to nine people who turned in nominating petitions and 11 wards saw at least 10 people file to run, the latter led by the astonishing 23 people who filed for the 24th Ward race. These 28 wards seem primed for two rounds of voting (again, assuming that most make it onto the ballot). Statistically speaking, the plethora of candidates will likely mean a fragmented vote that will require a run-off.

There are 10 other wards, by the way, where five people filed papers to run, the 13th and 47th wards among them.

So why are there so many aldermanic candidates? Click back to Progress Illinois next week for part two of this story, when we'll offer some context and thoughts about the answer to this question. In the meantime, get to know your local city council candidate by checking out our aldermanic tracker.