Joshua Hoyt

For The Love Of A Demographer

Joshua Hoyt — Tue, 13 May 2008 09:15:01 -0700

Most of my friends and colleagues think of me as a fiery activist for immigrant rights. Indeed, I spend as much time as I can organizing and enjoying good demonstrations. But I'd like to confess that I have a secret, quiet quirk.

I love demographers. Doug Massey of Princeton; Audrey Singer of Brookings; Dowell Myers of the University of Southern California; and Chicago’s own Rob Paral of Notre Dame: Superstars and heroes, one and all!

This is not a quirk shared by many, however. The Illinois Republican Party, for one, has failed to get in touch with its inner demographer and this has meant deep pain at the polling place.

I know that demographers are an understated, tweedy sort of crew, and I doubt one will ever make the cover of Rolling Stone. But I've discovered that they have a wondrous ability to shine a light on the future.

On Thursday, May 1, most of the television crews in the country were out filming the latest immigration marches. I was there myself, enjoying the great parade and speaking to the crowds. But that day, on the inner folds of the nation’s newspapers, demographers were using their numbers to paint a picture of what's to come.

Between 2000 and 2007 the nation’s Latino population grew from 35.7 million to 45.5 million, an impressive 27 percent jump. Even more significant was that, in the last two years, 62 percent of this growth has been through births, not immigration. In Illinois, the Latino population has grown by 390,000 during these last seven years, while the white population has declined by 118,000.

Are these numbers a good thing or a bad thing? Well, like everything else, it depends.

Writing from my particular vantage point -- as a 52 year-old baby boomer -- the statistics look pretty good. It turns out that the average white American is 40.8 years old and the average Hispanic is 27.8 years old. Dowell Myers points out that currently there are some 23 seniors for every 100 workers. However, 20 years from now (when I'm 72), the ratio will have changed drastically to 41 seniors for every 100 workers! The answer to the old Beatles song about "who will feed me when I’m 64" is already clear – Latino immigrants and their children. In addition, undocumented immigrants pay an estimated $7 - $8 billion a year into the Social Security Trust Fund and a recent report by the Social Security Administration credits them with reducing the long term deficit by 15 percent.

Again, from where I sit, these demographic trends look great.But if I were a GOP politician in this state, I might feel differently.

Unfortunately for Illinois Republicans, they continue to allow their party to be defined by anti-immigrant bellowing from the likes of Jim Oberweis, the perennial candidate who recently lost the seat vacated by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert. Perhaps if Oberweis had used his millions to hire himself a demographer, he would have been warned that over 29 percent of the 14th Congressional District is now made up of immigrants and their children.

Since 2002, Republicans in Illinois have lost seven statehouse seats and one Congressional seat in areas that have large concentrations of immigrants. New suburban Democrats have names like Hernandez, Crespo, and Chapa la Via.

But in the General Assembly, DuPage Republicans like Harry Ramey and Dennis Reboletti keep banging the anti-immigrant drum. They too appear to have no demographer on staff to warn them about Illinois’ changing electorate. For example, during the three years from 2002 through 2004 there were 80,000 new naturalized citizens in Northern Illinois. Since 2004, this number has increased by 56 percent, with 126,000 new applications for citizenship!

So until the Illinois GOP catches my demography bug, their numbers will continue to decline. It's a pity, really. Demographers could help them set good immigrant policy in education, identify good investments to be made in English learning, and identify gaps in our workforce to be filled with strategic training. Plus a talented demographer is a great thing for every politician, because THEY KNOW HOW TO COUNT!

Joshua Hoyt is the Director of the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights.

Previous columns:

"How The Democrats And The DCCC Finally Got Immigration Right," March 16, 2008.

JOSHUA HOYT: How The Democrats And The DCCC Finally Got Immigration Right

Joshua Hoyt — Sun, 16 Mar 2008 17:32:19 -0700

On March 8, Democrat and scientist Bill Foster shocked the political world by beating Republican dairy and investment millionaire Jim Oberweis in the special election in Illinois’ 14th Congressional District. This is a case where the Democratic candidate, the Democratic Party, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) finally “got it right” on immigration.

Faced with an aggressive, divisive attack by the harshly anti-immigrant Oberweis, Foster presented a positive, nuanced, and humane approach to the issue. At the same time, the DCCC aggressively targeted Oberweis for his hypocrisy on immigration. The combination of a solution-oriented approach by Foster and a hard-hitting offense by national Democrats neutralized the Republican attack’s potential effect on mainstream voters without alienating Latino voters.

This is a road map for future Democratic victories in swing districts where immigration will be an issue.

Anyone active in Illinois politics understands that Oberweis is a hard-line demagogue on immigration matters. He ran some of the harshest anti-immigrant commercials ever seen in Illinois during his 2004 Senate campaign, and he is a Board Member for Numbers USA, a virulently anti-immigration national advocacy group.

Given this history, it was inevitable that Oberweis would attack his opponent Foster as being pro-amnesty, and indeed his numerous TV ads accused Foster of wanting to use taxpayer dollars to help “illegal aliens” get “amnesty”.

Not so long ago, such a strategy might have proved effective in the 14th Congressional District, which was drawn to be reliably Republican territory. But unfortunately for Mr. Oberweis, the district is now home to a large and rapidly growing community of immigrants. In 2005, there were 190,000 Latinos and Asians living within the district’s borders and immigrants and their children accounted for a stunning 29.6 percent of the population. These demographical shifts are continuing across Chicago’s suburbs. During the last four years, vigorous non-partisan voter registration and citizenship efforts by the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights have significantly changed the electorate in these areas.

Even knowing that he would face Oberweis’s attacks on the issue of illegal immigration, Foster chose not to adopt the hard-line, enforcement-first “anti-amnesty” position that the DCCC has been recommending over the past several years.

Instead, Foster advanced a positive, nuanced, and solutions-oriented approach to addressing illegal immigration. His position statement on the issue stressed “workable compromise”, “humanitarian” and “comprehensive” reform, and the importance of remaining a “nation of laws” with effective “border security”. Furthermore, rather than keep his distance, Foster reached out to immigrant advocates and Latino community leaders.

At the same time, the DCCC emphasized Oberweis’ major vulnerability on the issue: in November 2005 the Illinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights (ICIRR) filed a complaint with the Illinois Department of Labor on behalf of two undocumented workers who had been cleaning Oberweis Ice Cream stores in Chicago’s suburbs for $3.23 an hour. In the weeks leading up to the special election, the DCCC ran a series of mailers, robo-calls, and radio and TV ads highlighting the ICIRR complaint and ridiculing Oberweis’ hypocrisy on illegal immigration.

This tactic clearly infuriated Oberweis. On the of night March 6, just 36 hours before the polls opened, his son, who now runs the family dairy, filed a lawsuit against the DCCC, claiming that the ads were false. The net result? On the eve of the election numerous television stations replayed their archive footage of undocumented immigrants cleaning the Oberweis stores.

On March 8, Foster won the race with a convincing 5,000 vote margin, 53 percent to 47 percent. Dozens of Latino and immigrant activists were working to “Get Out The Vote” for Foster on Election Day and it is well worth noting that Foster carried the heavily Hispanic City of Aurora with a 3,200 vote margin.

This victory shows that a reasonable, solution-oriented approach to immigration combined with a hard offense on Republican hypocrisy can successfully neutralize accusations that Democrats are soft on illegal immigration – even in a Republican-leaning district. It is possible to do this without alienating Latino voters or pandering to the climate of hate that has engulfed the debate on immigration.

Bill Foster deserves to be complemented for running a campaign he can be proud of; the Democratic Party and the DCCC deserve to be complemented for finally getting it right on immigration.

Joshua Hoyt is the executive director of the Ilinois Coalition for Immigrant and Refugee Rights.