Robert Creamer

ROBERT CREAMER: Barack’s Home State Makes The Difference In Indiana

Robert Creamer — Fri, 09 May 2008 09:41:03 -0700

Barack Obama may not have technically won Indiana Tuesday night, but by holding Hillary Clinton to a whisker-thin 11,000-vote margin, he administered the final blow to her tiny hopes of victory. Indiana did indeed turn out to be the “tie breaker."

Even before North Carolina and Indiana, the delegate math made it almost impossible to deny Obama the Democratic nomination. But Clinton’s Pennsylvania victory, her constant attacks, and Reverend Wright’s re-emergence into the campaign had some Democrats feeling queasy.

Obama’s 14 percent landslide in North Carolina did much to reassure them that he was not mortally damaged by the weeks of negative attacks. But it was when the numbers narrowed in Indiana that you could feel the cold winds shift, as if a political warm-front had swept in, bringing with it the breezes of victory. The pundits' tone morphed from “big night for Hillary” to Tim Russert’s assertion that “We now know who the Democratic nominee is going to be, and no one is going to dispute it.”

The methodical, high-intensity Obama field operation contributed much to his Indiana success through its mobilization of African-Americans and young people. But the key to Indiana was his solid performance among whites. Obama garnered 40 percent of the white vote in Indiana, better than the 34 percent he won in Ohio and 37 percent in Pennsylvania – and he did it after two solid weeks of Reverend Wright re-reruns. He also did better among whites without college degrees. Obama had won only 27 percent of that demographic in Ohio and 29 percent in Pennsylvania, but in Indiana he attracted 34 percent.

Every age group but those over 60 went for Obama. Independents went his way, 54-to-46. And in both North Carolina and Indiana, a substantial majority thought Obama was more likely than Clinton to beat John McCain (55-to-39 in North Carolina; 51-to-46 in Indiana).

Had Hillary won a substantial victory in Indiana, that still would have been okay for Obama. The numbers were still with him. But the virtual tie in Indiana really turned the political tide.

One reason Barack did better than expected in Indiana – and improved on his Pennsylvania and Ohio performance – was the state’s proximity to Illinois. This provided Barack with two key advantages.

First, the Illinois Obama organization – and supporters like my wife, Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky – mustered volunteers by the hundreds to supplement the already robust Indiana field operation. These volunteers provided thousands of days worth of canvassing and phone banking.

Second, many voters in Indiana know Barack. Residents in the northwest corner of the state get Chicago TV, often read Chicago newspapers, and many of them work in the city. It’s often forgotten that voters in Terra Haute and Evansville also get Illinois TV stations and their local networks often cover Prairie State stories to meet the needs of the many Illinois viewers in their own markets.

My mother used to say that you know that a romantic relationship has promise if the better you know the other person, the better you like them. When it comes to politics, it’s certainly true in Obama’s case. When he first ran for the U.S. Senate in 2004, many pundits laughed that an African-American guy with a name like Obama had no chance at all in rural Illinois. Wrong.

As people in small cities and rural areas downstate got to know Obama that election year, they warmed up fast. In the end Obama won almost 53 percent of the primary vote statewide against three other strong candidates. When the original Republican candidate was forced to leave the race because of a sex scandal, Obama was so strong that the state GOP was forced to ship in Alan Keyes from Maryland to be their candidate. Obama crushed him in the general election.

I had dinner recently with the chair of the Scott County Democratic Party. She described Barack’s first meeting during the 2004 campaign with her mainly rural, white male precinct committee members. It was safe to say that he didn’t have them at “hello.” But by the end of the meeting, most were sold on Obama’s authenticity – and on his understanding of people like themselves.

So it’s not surprising that in the Illinois primary for president on February 5, Obama beat Hillary almost two-to-one. Most of the state's 103 counties are rural or home to small cities and towns like those in Indiana. Obama carried all but 14.

Does Obama play in Peoria? He carried Peoria County with 69.3 percent of the vote.

Obama won Adams County – home of Quincy, on the Mississippi River – by 60 percent.

He carried rural Henry County in northwest Illinois by 62 percent.

The fifteen counties in the far southern end of the state are physically and culturally-closer to Jackson, Mississippi, than to Chicago. People hunt, have guns, are predominantly white, and are committed to their churches. Obama carried far southern Illinois against Clinton.

Exit polls from the Illinois presidential primary show white men went for Obama 59 percent to 37 percent. Two-thirds of men and women earning less than $50,000/year voted for him. People who live in small cities and rural areas supported Obama 53-to-43.

Some will write off these figures as evidence of his homecourt advantage. But that’s my point. The more that voters – especially white rural voters -- know about Obama, the more they support him.

That’s what happened in Indiana and it’s good news for the general election -- as people across America will get to know Barack better and better over the next five months.

It’s also fitting that the people of Illinois – the people who know him best – were able to play a significant role in the Indiana election that turned the tide and guaranteed him the Democratic nomination.

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight. How Progressives Can Win.

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Illinois Can Lead The Way, March 18, 2008

ROBERT CREAMER: Illinois Can Lead The Way

Robert Creamer — Tue, 18 Mar 2008 09:46:57 -0700

A political “earthquake” happened when Bill Foster won the special election to serve out former House Speaker Dennis Hastert's term in Illinois’ 14th Congressional District. But that “earthquake” was merely the harbinger of the tectonic shift in American politics that could take place over the next two years.

An historic opportunity exists for progressives to create a generational political realignment in America of the sort that happened in 1932 with the election of Franklin D. Roosevelt and once again in 1980 with the election of Ronald Reagan. Illinois could lead the way.

Realignments of this type involve two major components. On the one hand, they require the creation of a replicable electoral majority. On the other, they require a shift in the value frame for political debate – a shift in what is considered political “common sense.”

Fundamental political realignment does not require us to move to the center. It requires that we move the center in a progressive direction.

In the March 8th special election, Bill Foster did just that. Special elections are normally very tough for Democrats running in districts with high Republican performance. Turnout is normally low, and that typically bodes well for Republicans who can count on the support of upscale voters that are always more likely to go to the polls.

The 14th District has a very Republican history, having been represented by Dennis Hastert for over two decades. Hastert never won by less than 64%.

Yet Foster won a convincing 53% to 47% victory.

Foster didn’t win by offering a “Republican lite” platform. To the contrary, he came out strongly against the Iraq War, against any attempt to revive the Bush program to privatize Social Security, in favor of comprehensive immigration reform, for universal health care, and against tax breaks for millionaires.

There is no doubt that on a personal level, Foster is the perfect candidate for the exurban 14th District. His professional, non-politico style and his history as a physicist and successful businessman are big assets. And of course the demographics of the 14th have shifted too. Latinos, South Asians, and other minorities make up an increasing percentage of the population as former city dwellers have moved into the district.

Foster’s ability to fund and execute an excellent campaign was obviously a critical factor.

But there is no mistaking that the ideological ground has also shifted. Progressive positions on the economy and foreign policy are popular in the 14th District – as is the likely Democratic Presidential standard bearer, Barack Obama – who strongly endorsed Foster. In fact Obama made the final appeal for Foster in his closing campaign commercial.

It is entirely possible that this pattern will be replicated this fall in two – and potentially up to four -- additional Republican-held Congressional Districts in Illinois.

Dan Seals has enormous momentum in his campaign to defeat incumbent GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in the north suburban 10th District. Kirk marched in lockstep with President Bush when it came to his failed “trickle down” economic policy, and has been one of the leading cheerleaders in Congress for the Iraq War and neo-con foreign policy in general.

Kirk’s positions are completely out of step with the heavily anti-Bush North Shore. Seals, who lost the off year election to Kirk by 53% to 47% vote, is an articulate, energetic and attractive candidate.

Republican Jerry Weller who represents the Southwest suburban 11th District is one of a flock of Republicans who have decided to abandon ship rather than run for reelection this term. Democratic State Sen. Debbie Halverson has an excellent chance of taking this seat. In fact, the Republican candidate who won the February primary has dropped out of the race and, as of publication, local Republican Committeemen have not yet chosen a new opponent.

Republican Congressman Peter Roskam barely beat out Iraq War vet Tammy Duckworth in 2006 to represent the west suburban 6th District. This time he is being challenged by Colonel Jill Morgenthaler. If Obama is the Democratic Presidential nominee, that could bring out a wave of young and minority voters that could sweep Roskam away as well.

Then there is the 18th: the Peoria-centered district now represented by Republican moderate Ray LaHood. He too has decided to leave the Republican minority in Congress for greener pastures. A strong Democratic campaign with Obama at the top of the ticket could propel Democratic candidate Jim McConoughey to victory in this central Illinois district.

Not long ago – throughout the 70’s and 80’s -- Illinois was considered a swing state like Ohio. Since 1992, the state has voted reliably for Democratic presidential candidates,. But until recently its Congressional delegation was split down the middle. In fact, after the 2002 redistricting, Illinois had a Senator from each party and its delegation in the U.S House was made up of ten Republicans and only nine Democrats.

With the victory of Barack Obama for Senate, Melissa Bean in the 8th District and Foster in the 14th, Illinois now has two Democratic Senators and 11 Democratic U.S. Representatives.

After this fall, it is possible that only four Republicans will remain in the Illinois Congressional Delegation. Now that’s political realignment.

If it happens, effective Democratic campaigns, solid political organizing, and good candidates will all contribute. But the foundation for this realignment is built on the fundamental fact that the right-wing economic and foreign policies enacted by the Republicans over the last 30 years have failed to make our people safer or more prosperous.

Illinois Republicans are finding out that that Abraham Lincoln was right: “You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.”

Robert Creamer is a long time political organizer and strategist and author of the recent book: Stand Up Straight: How Progressives Can Win, available on Amazon.com.