Reports

Brookings Study Shows Reconcentration Of Poverty

Adam Doster — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 09:56:28 -0700

Declining poverty rates and nationwide efforts to decentralize poverty caused the urban poor population to fall by 27 percent during the 1990s. Unfortunately, the economic downturn of the Bush years has reversed those trends.

According to a comprehensive new study by the Brookings Institution's Alan Berube and Elizabeth Kneebone, the number of tax filers nationwide living in areas with high rates of working poverty jumped by 40 percent between tax years 1999 and 2005. During the same period, 34 large metropolitan areas experienced increased rates of concentrated working poverty (calculated by the share of Earned Income Tax Credit filers in communities with a high percentage of working poor). By contrast, 24 areas showed declines.

Cities in the Midwest and Northeast are experiencing the highest increases:

Detroit and its suburbs in 2005 had the highest concentrated working poverty rate in the Midwest: 27.5 percent, followed by St. Louis (21.6 percent), Cleveland (21.5 percent) and Chicago—plus its Illinois and Northwest Indiana suburbs—at 17.9 percent. The highest rate in the Northeast was the Philadelphia metropolitan area, at 25.5 percent.

As the landscape in Chicago demonstrates, this problem isn't limited to the inner city.

According to Brookings, five additional suburban ZIP codes now have high rates of concentrated working poverty -- in Riverdale, Harvey, and Hammond, among others -- compared to a net gain of one in Chicago proper. Several ZIP codes in the Chicago region crossed more intermediate thresholds of working poverty between TY 1999 and TY 2005 too, with 20 or 30 percent of their filers now receiving the EITC, many of which fall in the inner suburbs.

The new data indicates that the United States by no means solved the problem of concentrated poverty during the Clinton years. The working poor remained susceptible to economic fluctuations. As a result, the slumping economy -- spurred by the dot-com bust and 9/11 and followed by a slow recovery under President Bush -- led to much of the regression. And the problem has likely gotten worse since 2005:

Poverty rates in this study predate the arrival of $4-a-gallon gas, higher unemployment rates and three years of food inflation, all of which would certainly paint a gloomier picture. "Given the backsliding evident by 2005, and the weak economic forecasts ahead, it seems likely that we will finish the current decade having ceded some of the 'stunning progress' against concentrated poverty we achieved during the prior decade," the authors concluded.

For more, read the entire report (pdf).

Immigrant Rights Experts Rebut Pro-Enforcement Study

Adam Doster — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:25:27 -0700

Garnering significant media attention, the Washington-based Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) released a new study yesterday that credits immigration enforcement with a decline in illegal immigration. It found that since last August the "less-educated, working-age Hispanic immigrant population" has dropped by more than 10 percent. CIS research director Steven Camarota acknowledges that, while the lack of available jobs has played a role, "several factors pointed to enforcement as a major reason":

Camarota and Jensenius said they take this as possible evidence that tougher enforcement can have a multiplier effect, scaring many more illegal immigrants into leaving of their own accord than authorities can pick up. And the authors suggest that if the trends they identify are sustained, "it would cut the illegal population in half within just five years."

But when analyzing a report, it's important to look at who authored it. Calling themselves a "pro-immigrant, low-immigration think tank," CIS is an off-shoot of FAIR, an organization headed by John Tanton that advocates for significant reductions in immigration -- illegal or otherwise. The Southern Poverty Law Center calls CIS a "thinly disguised anti-immigration organization." Not surprisingly, the details and methodology of the study are questionable at best. From the Tribune:

But some questioned the study's methodology, its findings and its underlying assumptions.

"Our data aren't inconsistent with the idea that people are leaving," said Jeffrey Passel, demographer with the Pew Hispanic Center, a non-partisan Washington think tank. But Passel added, "I don't see in my numbers anywhere near the decline he's talking about."

Frank Sharry, the executive director of America's Voice agrees with Passel:

"As is their habit, the Center for Immigration Studies starts with a conclusion and then shamelessly tortures data to conform to their conclusion. The truth is immigration enforcement has increased dramatically over the last twenty years, yet the population of undocumented immigrants has also increased dramatically during that time. Immigration ebbs and flows according to economic push and pull factors, and every credible researcher who has evaluated the issue has come to this same conclusion.

"This latest report from CIS is just the next chapter of their campaign to convince policy-makers that 'attrition through enforcement'—or tightening the screws on undocumented workers and hoping they will self-deport—is a 'humane' alternative to the mass deportation of 12 million people. But there is nothing humane nor practical about creating a state of terror in immigrant communities aimed at driving millions of humble, hardworking people from our midst."

Thankfully, some of our representatives are refusing to take their eyes off of the inhumane treatment of immigrants detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement:

"I'm going to be talking to my colleagues to put an end — an end — to these raids," said Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-Ill.). "America is better, greater than these conditions which we have created in Postville." He said Immigration reforms must include a way for illegal immigrants to legally remain in the country but offered no further details on how lawmakers would stop the raids.

"The president knows that we resolve nothing by taking these kinds of punitive actions," he said.

Number Of Illinois Uninsured Continues To Climb

Adam Doster — Thu, 01 May 2008 12:50:11 -0700

On the heels off our recent health care coverage comes a new report, courtesy of the Gilead Outreach and Referral Center, with more bad news: the number of uninsured in Illinois has grown for the third straight year. Up 2.1 percent from 2005, 1.75 million Illinoisans went without insurance in 2006, the latest available data. The Tribune's medical blog Triage has more details. Here are a few key findings:

- 44 percent of the uninsured (764,237 Illinoisans) work full time, and another 14 percent (246,358) work part time.

- 30.9 percent of Hispanics (495,202) are uninsured, compared with 23 percent (399.012) of African-Americans and 10 percent of Caucasians (747,677).

- A surprising number of children in Illinois are uninsured, despite the state’s All Kids program. The census data puts the number at 323,197 children 18 or younger.

(Hat tip: Division Street)

Numbers That Spell Crisis

Mose Buchele — Tue, 29 Apr 2008 10:32:17 -0700

Every year, fewer people have health insurance, and those that do are paying more and more to hold on to it. That's as true in Illinois as it is in the rest of the country according to a report (PDF) out today by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The Foundation commissioned an analysis of U.S. coverage to better understand "the cost of family health insurance premiums as compared to income." The study reveals not only the skyrocketing cost of coverage, but also the number of those who have been left behind completely. Before we take a look at the Prairie State, here are some of the findings on the national scale:

Nationally, the average cost of family coverage increased nearly $2,500—from $8,281 in 2001 to $10,728 in 2005. The percentage of family premiums that employees pay held steady at about 24 percent. The amount that workers pay for family premiums, on average, increased $664, from $1,921 in 2001 to $2,585 in 2005. Meanwhile, the median income of people who hold family health insurance policies increased just $1,250 during the same period, from $40,818 in 2001 to $42,068 in 2005.

The news is not any better in Illinois. Not only is the cost of coverage up, but fewer and fewer jobs are offering insurance at all. The report shows that 26,627 less employers offered private health insurance in 2005 than in 2001. That amounts to 660,000 jobs that lost medical benefits during that five year span.

(More after the jump ...)

The Chicago Tribune's medical reporter Judith Graham offered some reasons why:

Driving the trend are soaring medical costs – a consequence of more medical services and more expensive technologies -- that make health insurance ever more expensive for workers and employers [...]

It’s why an unexpected spike in medical expenses being reported by insurance companies is so alarming.

If that lasts for a while, the implications appear clear. To maintain profits, insurers will have to raise rates, which will intensify cost pressures on employers, which in turn will induce more businesses to drop health insurance and expand the ranks of the uninsured.

As Graham indicates, insurers can clear more profit by insuring fewer people but charging more. That kind of arrangement serves neither employers nor employees, and makes many wonder why a for-profit arrangement is still (seemingly) the preferred way of answering the health care crisis.

The tide may be turning. Recently, a survey showed that 59 percent of U.S. physicians support national health insurance. Here in Illinois, House Bill 311 would establish a state based single payer system. Facing long odds, the legislation passed out of committee earlier this month and may be headed to a full vote in the House. As the U.S. health care crisis deepens, we may see more people taking another look at single payer as an answer to our insurance woes.

Image used under a Creative Commons license by Flickr user Photodu.de.

New Report Details Fiscal Crunch In Illinois

Mose Buchele — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 12:26:37 -0700

Even if the nation is not yet officially in "recession," many states -- Illinois among them -- might as well be. Today the National Council of State Legislatures (NCSL) released a survey of legislative fiscal directors indicating that numerous state economies are currently in crisis. The economic trouble is being felt especially in state budgets, as money brought in through taxes is not keeping up with spending:

Because most FY 2008 budgets were built on revenue forecasts that are not materializing as expected, budget gaps have grown. In November, seven states and Puerto Rico reported shortfalls. That number rose to 16 states and Puerto Rico by mid April. Collectively, these gaps totaled at least $11.7 billion. The situation is worse for FY 2009: Budget gaps have emerged in 23 states and Puerto Rico, and collectively they exceed $26 billion. Again, slowing or declining revenue is the principal reason. In fact, two-thirds of the states are concerned about FY 2009 revenue performance. Four states are pessimistic.

Illinois is listed among the 34 states "concerned" with the 2009 budget gap, but it is also one of only four states that refused to estimate how big that shortfall might become. Instead the Illinois respondent wrote that:

The revenue picture for FY 2009 is far from clear. It appears that limited base growth is the best officials can hope for. Unfortunately, appetites for expanded health care, education, capital needs, and other worthy programs continue to build. Add to that the continued pension funding pressure and bills incurred but unable to be paid, and the resulting budgetary difficulties continue to build.

The "bills" in question include over $700 million the state owes in new pension payments, as well as millions of other expenses for Fiscal Year 2008 that the state will have to figure out how to pay for if it does not want to run a serious deficit. Speaking earlier this year about the 2008 budget, State Comptroller Dan Hynes has already noted that:

Fiscal spending pressures include more than $700 million in new pension payments for state workers and $500 million in rising Medicaid costs. Add in $400 million for education -- a typical annual boost for schools - - and the overall new costs for those three major spending areas alone could hit $1.6 billion in the new budget, Hynes said. That would be twice as much as what the governor expects this year in revenue growth.

According to the NCSL, states are facing their respective budget crises in different ways. Eight of them are considering an income tax hike, while others are looking at deep budget cuts and dipping into states "rainy day funds" to weather the storm.

Illinois did not list any of these options in its response, despite several proposals to revamp the state's regressive flat income tax. Instead, the state pointed to "closing loopholes in the corporate income tax, changing riverboat taxes, and selling the lottery and other state assets" as possible solutions.

Study Shows Spread Of Poverty In Illinois

Mose Buchele — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 15:02:47 -0700

A human rights organization released a report today which found that "poverty increased in 74 of Illinois' 102 counties" between 2000 and 2006 and now "afflicts more than 1.5 million Illinoisans," a 19 percent increase during this period. The news is particularly bad for residents of the Chicago suburbs. According to the Heartland Alliance study, the median income of residents in the collar counties has steadily declined:

Between 2000 and 2006, median annual household income declined by $4,877 in Cook County; $8,470 in DuPage; $8,077 in Kane; $5,871 in Lake; $6,498 in McHenry; and $2,495 in Will. During the same period, prices of vital household necessities escalated exponentially: food costs increased by 15.4 percent, medical care by 31.2 percent, energy by 60 percent and gasoline by 92.7 percent. This trend is likely to continue: One-third of all jobs in Northeastern Illinois, (the Chicago region as well as Grundy, Kendall, and Kankakee Counties) are low-wage service jobs.

The findings also highlight the plight of the working poor. According to the study, 210,000 people who have a job in the area still live below the poverty line. Adding to their burden is Illinois' regressive income tax system:

When both state and local taxes are taken into account, Illinois’ poor families have an effective tax rate of 13.7 percent – nearly triple the share (5.1 percent) assessed on the top 1 percent of households in the state.

But as the map below shows, the problems are not isolated to the Chicago area. Amy Rynell, Director of the Mid-American Institute on Poverty for the Alliance, says they require statewide solutions, starting with the Illinois tax code.

(More after the jump ...)

"One thing that would tremendously help the growing number of people working in low income work would be to expand our state Earned Income Tax Credit," Rynell told me in an interview today. "Illinois has one of the most unfair tax systems in the country [...] In our current Earned Income Tax Credit, the average family is getting about $100, our absolute maximum is about $235." Rynell added, "We really can and should do better than that," noting that the maximum credit available through Wisconsin's program is $2,000.

One major contributor to the spread of poverty is the combination of rising living costs and stagnant or declining wages. Nowhere is this more true than in the case of housing. The study concludes that over 25 percent of Illinois renter households are spending more than half their income on housing. This represents "an increase of 42.2% since 1999."

Rynell says the capital construction project currently being debated by lawmakers could help correct this trend, if it includes money "set aside for affordable housing."

"We know that 75 percent of people in Illinois who are eligible for federal housing assistance are not receiving it," she continued. "So we just don’t have enough avenues in Illinois to make housing affordable for people making low wages."

Other reforms being advocated by the group include the creation of a state anti-poverty commission and an increase in Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, a program that has not seen a funding boost since 2002.

Feeling The Middle Class Squeeze

Adam Doster — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 09:54:59 -0700

A new report by the Pew Research Center corroborates what many folks in the U.S. have been feeling for years: the middle class is getting squeezed. Here are a few key insights:

- Americans feel stuck in their tracks. A majority of survey respondents say that in the past five years, they either haven't moved forward in life (25%) or have fallen backwards (31%). This is the most downbeat short-term assessment of personal progress in nearly half a century of polling by the Pew Research Center and the Gallup organization.

- From 1983 to 2004, the median net worth of upper-income families more than doubled, while the median net worth of middle-income families grew by just 29%. In effect, those in the middle have been making progress in absolute terms while falling behind in relative terms.

- As expenses have risen, middle-income Americans have taken on more debt, often borrowing against homes that, at least until recently, had been rising rapidly in value. The median debt-to-income ratio for middle-income adults increased from 0.45 in 1983 to 1.19 in 2004. Ratios have also increased for upper- and lower-income adults, but not by as much.

These findings -- combined with a recent New York Times poll in which 81 percent of respondents thought “things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track” -- suggest historic levels of public pessimism about the nation's direction. After eight years of President George W. Bush, whom historians are already identifying as the nation's worst president, it's really no surprise.

Democrats should jump all over these trends, making the case that increased financial regulation, progressive taxation, and smart government spending can decrease the sickening inequality and slow growth of the bottom 99 percent of Americans. As we've noted before, Barack Obama's indictment of the political culture that led to the mortgage crisis is a good example of how to tie together the squeeze's disparate causes.

But messaging on this issue can be a little challenging, too.

(More after the jump ...)

As Matt Yglesias notes: "Politically, it's a bit tricky since the salient trend is the dramatic narrowing of the better/worse gap, but the betters still outnumber the worses." The recap of the report in the Sun-Times points to this issue as well:

On the upside, nearly two-thirds say they have exceeded their parents' standard of living. Most are confident that life will be better five years from now and most expect their children to do better in life than they have done.

I'd guess part of the discrepancy stems from the absolute gains families are making despite their slowing relative growth. The other factor is the massive amount of people who consider themselves middle class; the report shows that 53 percent of adults in the country define themselves as "middle class," with household incomes ranging from below $40,000 to more than $150,000. The views of those on the upper end likely skew the data as well.

Given these realities, the messaging may have to be more subtle in certain parts of the country. But it's clear that there's a populist mandate. Democrats should speak to this middle class insecurity and put economic justice on the table.

More Bad News On Illinois Health Care

Josh Kalven — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 09:52:39 -0700

The Families USA report isn't the only discouraging news on the health care front here in Illinois. A study recently released by the Agency for Healthcare Research & Quality (part of the Federal Health and Human Services Department) analyzed over 100 separate metrics and concluded that the quality of health care in Illinois is getting worse. As the illustrations here show, on 10 of the 12 major "indicators," the state's performance decreased between 2005 and 2006.

On Chicago Public Radio's Eight Forty-Eight this morning, Dr. Quentin Young discussed some possible reasons for this slip. Among the causes he cited were the dwindling number of primary care doctors in the state, and of course, the growing lack of health insurance:

YOUNG: Geography is important. There are a lot of people in this state outside of Cook County, but they're spread very thin. And downstate facilities have constantly gone down. For example, obstetrical care is frequently 30 or 60 miles away. Some of the arguments are that the malpractice costs have made that happen. It's possible, because an OB-GYN can be charged $100,000 to $150,000 just to open his door. There's more to malpractice issues than that, but it's out there.

Another one, I think, is the shift toward specialism. This state, like many, has a hypertrophied specialized group -- meaning, these are people who do things -- surgeons, gastroenterologists -- who are 70 percent of our doctor force. And only 30 percent are primary care, who would be defined as general internists, family practicioners, OB-GYN -- some OB-GYN -- and all pediatrics. There are only 30 percent. Should be 50, probably 60. I think that's a big factor because these performance measures describe what primary care doctors do a lot. And if there are fewer of them, it's going to fall down.

And then, of course, there's always the issue of ability to pay, which has certainly gotten worse between these two surveys. That is to say, people in larger numbers have no insurance or poorer insurance.

I think that would begin to subsume the explanation. Althought this study does not offer the why of it, they just give you the what.

"Dying For Coverage"

Mose Buchele — Wed, 09 Apr 2008 08:53:50 -0700

Every week in Illinois, 18 people needlessly die because they lack health insurance. That is the key finding in a new report by the nonprofit group Families USA. In 2006, the report (PDF) estimates that 960 Illinoisans died for lack of insurance:

In 2006, there were more than 6,648,000 people between the ages of 25 and 64 living in Illinois. Of those, 17.2 percent were uninsured.2 Uninsured Illinoisans are sicker and die sooner than their insured counterparts. [...]

Families USA estimates that more than 18 working-age Illinoisans die each week due to lack of health insurance (approximately 960 people in 2006).

Between 2000 and 2006, the estimated number of adults between the ages of 25 and 64 in Illinois who died because they did not have health insurance was more than 6,100.

Affordable Housing Increasingly "Out Of Reach"

Adam Doster — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 09:20:08 -0700

As we briefly mentioned in the Early Bird, there is some pretty unsettling data in a new report by the National Low Income Housing Coalition this morning.

Titled "Out of Reach 2007-2008," the report shows that nationally, the gap between low-income Americans and their housing costs continues to widen significantly. While the affordability standard set by the federal government is 30 percent of one's income, one in seven families pays over 50 percent for a roof over their heads.

And at the state level, Illinois ranks fairly low(pdf), reporting the nation's 15th most expensive two-bedroom "housing wage" (including Washington DC and Puerto Rico). Here's the underlying data for Illinois:

In Illinois, the Fair Market Rent (FMR) for a two-bedroom apartment is $844. In order to afford this level of rent and utilities, without paying more than 30% of income on housing, a household must earn $2,813 monthly or $33,758 annually. Assuming a 40-hour work week, 52 weeks per year, this level of income translates into a Housing Wage of $16.23.

In Illinois, a minimum wage worker earns an hourly wage of $7.50. In order to afford the FMR for a two-bedroom apartment, a minimum wage earner must work 87 hours per week, 52 weeks per year. Or, a household must include 2.2 minimum wage earner(s) working 40 hours per week year-round in order to make the two bedroom FMR affordable.

Thankfully, there are advocates pushing hard to ease this burden. While the imitable Leadership Council for Metropolitan Open Communities -- the organization founded after Martin Luther King Jr.'s open housing campaign in 1966 -- folded in 2006, Housing Action Illinois has picked up the slack. You can check them out here.

Image used under a Creative Commons license by Flickr user stevevance.