Missouri

"All I Can Say Is Wow": Obama Greeted By Nearly 100K In St. Louis

Josh Kalven — Sat, 18 Oct 2008 12:59:33 -0700

At a rally underneath the Gateway Arch in St. Louis today, Barack Obama spoke to a mammoth crowd estimated at 80,000 to 100,000 people. Obama marveled at the size of the audience as he took to the podium: "All I can say is, wow." Read the Post-Dispatch's initial story here and check out their photo gallery as well.

McCain Exits Michigan

Josh Kalven — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 11:58:01 -0700

Wow. Big news today out of Michigan. The McCain campaign has announced that they're pulling all staff out of the state and redistributing them to Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida.

So taking that into consideration, let's have a look at the current map. What emerges is that McCain is being forced to defend the following Bush states: Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida and Ohio. Meanwhile, with Michigan abandoned and Pennsylvania looking increasingly out of reach, there are only two Kerry states that stick out as possible GOP pick-ups and they're both in our neck of the woods: Minnesota and Wisconsin.

On the topic of Wisconsin, it's worth reading this New York Times piece from last weekend about the pushback pro-Obama union leaders are experiencing among voters there. Also of note is a new Research 2000 poll out showing McCain with only a one-point lead in Indiana.

Meanwhile, Rich Miller linked to this TPM article that quotes AFL-CIO deputy political director Mike Podhorzer discussing the current electoral environment at length. The gist:

Podhorzer stressed that he is impressed by Obama's gains and is convinced Obama is on track to win right now. But he said that the union's interaction with battleground-state voters, combined with extensive internal polling, indicate that this dynamic is anything but fixed and that there's much more fluidity than is generally acknowledged.

Podhorzer ascribed the fluidity to two factors: The uncertain and rapidly shifting political landscape created by the financial crisis, and the relatively little time Obama has spent as a politician in the national spotlight.

"Low information voters who haven't been following this don't know very much about Obama, in a way that might be different from other elections," he said. "Voters are saying, `I really don't want another four years of this, but I don't know much about him."

I think this is a pretty obvious point, but nonetheless an important one to keep in mind. Public opinion is moving in Obama's direction, no doubt. But that doesn't mean that the support he's gaining is by any means solid. A serious gaffe, or a mini-controversy, or certain unforeseen events couldn't swing things back the other way.

Pollwatchers Shift Missouri To The Left

Josh Kalven — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:04:03 -0700

We've been carefully tracking Indiana's swing state status, but now it appears the race for Missouri may be just as tight. A CNN poll released today has Barack Obama leading John McCain by one point -- 49-48 percent. The last CNN survey in the state -- conducted three weeks ago -- had Obama down by five. The most recent polls by Survey USA and Research 2000 had Obama trailing by two points and one points, respectively. Both were conducted in the middle of last week.

The new numbers have Electoral College trackers shifting Missouri to the left. CNN moved the state from "lean McCain" to "toss-up." Today, Pollster.com did the same.

Vets For Freedom Pays Fratboys To Support Iraq War

Angela Caputo — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 12:37:07 -0700

Here's a ringing endorsement for the ongoing war in Iraq. Despite describing itself as the "largest Iraq and Afghanistan veterans organization in America," Vets For Freedom (VFF) had some trouble scaring up like-minded folks to rally at the vice presidential candidates debate in St. Louis tomorrow night. So they decided to offer some local frat boys money to pose as war supporters.

The Huffington Post reports:

In an email obtained by the Huffington Post, Vets for Freedom field staffer Laura Meyer offered a fraternity at St. Louis University a "sizable donation" -- plus free lunch -- if it could use their pledges to demonstrate outside the VP debate.

"I was emailing you today," wrote Meyer, "because I am trying to find people who would be willing to hold up signs for a few hours in the afternoon this Thursday outside the VP debate site. It's only for a few hours and you can gain a lot from it.... first off, lunch for any guys who agree to volunteer will be on me. Secondly, they will get lots of media attention! My organization did a similar thing in Mississippi last week and a ton of them were on TV. Meaning, the guys could wear their [REDACTED] gear while holding up our signs and get attention for their frat. Also, they will get to hang out with a bunch of really cool Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans.

"Lastly, and here's the kicker.... if you guys can get us at least 20 volunteers for those few hours, my organization will make a sizable donation to your fraternity. If you use pledges you could look at it as 'free money and free publicity'. If this sounds like something you may be willing to help us out with, please let me know ASAP!"

Ironically, VFF spent $600,000 on ads in September attacking Barack Obama for being out of step with America's troops. In one ad titled "Skipped," the group alleges that the Illinois senator opposed a 2007 troop funding measure. The smear isn't new. It's is a play lifted from the McCain campaign, which Factcheck.org has debunked. Still, VFF will drop $2.2 million more to spread the message this month as the ad begins airing in California today.

Illinois, Missouri At Odds Over Ozone Regualtions

Mose Buchele — Mon, 28 Jul 2008 14:49:56 -0700

In the last year, the state of Illinois has aggressively pushed for stricter standards against air pollution at the national level. That push has now put us at odds with one of our neighbors across the Mississippi. Today the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports how Missouri's Department of National Resources (DNR) is suing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to weaken ozone regulations. Meanwhile, Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan is suing to have those regulations strengthened.

Here's the background: in March, the EPA lowered the standard of acceptable ozone pollution to 0.075 parts-per-million from 0.084 parts-per-million. The problem with the new limit is that the EPA's own scientists found it still allowed for a dangerous level of pollution. In response, Madigan -- along with the AGs of New York, California, Oregon, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania -- signed a petition demanding that the regulations fall in line with the scientists' recommendations:

"It is simply unacceptable for EPA to ignore its own science advisory committee and set the new ozone standard at a level that will make breathing more difficult for children, seniors, people who work outdoors and those who already suffer from chronic lung disease," [Madigan] said.

Fearing that the new rules may hurt local industries, the Missouri DNR took the opposite position, joining the state of Mississippi in suing the EPA to bring the ozone limit back to pre-March standards.

Only time will tell whether either lawsuit will succeed, but with over a dozen other states backing her petition, Madigan certainly has the numbers on her side. Another good sign for the Illinois-backed suit? Missouri's own Attorney General Jay Nixon does not support his state's legal challenge. The DNR asked him to back the suit but he refused, saying that "the new [EPA] standard is an effort to protect public health" and pointing out that the agency had failed to provide any factual basis for its suit.

Maybe That Drawn-Out Primary Wasn't Such A Bad Thing After All

Mose Buchele — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 10:47:42 -0700

As the summer election season hits its stride, we're seeing more and more evidence that Barack Obama is benefiting from the cross-country battle he waged with Hillary Clinton during the Democratic primary. Yesterday, National Journal's Carrie Dann reported on how the drawn-out contest helped Democrats cement their presence in important battleground states:

A glance at the primary calendar offers a list of red to purple states where Obama and Clinton stumped feverishly after McCain accepted the party mantle against the backdrop of the White House lawn on March 5. Democrats battled in Indiana, North Carolina and Montana -- all states touted by the Obama campaign as potential electoral pickups -- as well as in Oregon and Pennsylvania, Democratic-leaning states where McCain hopes to gain ground. [...]

[T]he difference in simple ground covered in the five contested states that held post-March 4th primaries is striking. In the Tar Heel State, for example, Obama held a total of 14 events over nine campaign days. McCain has spent only three days there, one in a private meeting with evangelical iconBilly Graham and his son. In Indiana, Obama made 26 appearances over 20 days, to McCain's two. McCain trails Obama by more than five campaign stops in Montana, 10 in Oregon and 25 in Pennsylvania.

All told, in those five states, Obama has campaigned for a total of 54 days to McCain's 13, giving Obama a net lead of 41 campaign days. That lead has grown, not shrunk, since Obama clinched the nomination and began campaigning in nontraditional regions as part of his campaign's avowed 50-state strategy.

It's not all about campaign stops. Blue Indiana points out that Obama already has a massive network of organizers in the Hoosier State thanks to the hotly contested Democratic primary:

Indiana has had Obama staffers on the ground for weeks. The campaign has already announced that at least 25 campaign offices will be opening across the state, and I received numerous emails over the last few weeks touting a fellowship program that promises to put quite a few Obama organizers on the ground in addition to their paid staff. [...]

While the Obama campaign hits the ground running in the Hoosier state, John McCain has finally decided to dedicate someone -- no seriously, they just have one staffer -- to our little corner of the Midwest.

Blue Indiana also notes that the upsurge in Obama's popularity among Hoosiers coincided with the beginning of his primary campaign there. Across the border in Missouri, Democrats are grateful for the heated primary season as well, reports the Kansas City Star:

The drawn-out primary struggle with Hillary Clinton is now paying a major dividend, said Missouri’s Sen. Claire McCaskill, an Obama confidante — legions of now-experienced hands.

“Never before have we had a presidential nominee who’s organized and competed in nearly all 50 states prior to the general election,” she said.

Adding to Obama's advantage, is the fact that John McCain, during all those months without a clear Democratic opponent, failed to lay much groundwork in the states where Clinton and Obama were stumping. His campaign instead seemed to assume that the Democrats would be fractured coming out of the contentious primary season and that he would benefit from these deep divisions. But to the contrary, those populations that heavily supported Clinton (such as women and Hispanics) are now throwing majority support to Obama.

Missouri Upping The Voter ID Ante

Adam Doster — Mon, 12 May 2008 08:01:24 -0700

Critics of the Indiana voter ID law upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court late last month warned that the highly restrictive bill could set a dangerous precedent by giving cover to other fledgling anti-voter campaigns nationwide.

Our neighbors in Missouri are already upping the ante.

Legislators there are expected to support a proposed constitutional amendment that would force potential voters to provide a proof of citizenship to register. While most states require some sort of identification to vote -- generally a utility bill, a paycheck, drivers license, or student/military id card -- the Missouri law would narrow eligible verification materials to an original birth certificate, naturalization papers, or a passport.

Why is such an amendment necessary? Supporters say proof of citizenship measures improve the accuracy of registration rolls, gives voters confidence in the process, and eases growing concerns about illegal voting by undocumented immigrants. But just as in Indiana, the evidence of such fraud is nonexistent. Indeed, The New York Times reported that, between October 2002 to September 2005, the Justice Department indicted only 40 voters for registration fraud or illegal voting, 21 of whom were non-citizens. Missouri lawmakers can't provide any relevant local evidence of voter fraud.

Meanwhile, the negative effects are striking. Robin Carnahan, Missouri's secretary of state, estimated that the law could disenfranchise up to 240,000 already registered voters who would be unable to prove their citizenship. And in a crucial presidential swing state, those voters could tip the scales. According to a January study by Brown University, if voter ID policies had not been in place in 19 states in 2004, turnout would have increased by more than 1.6 million.

The fate of the Missouri bill is still very much up in the air, as it would have to be approved by voters in the state's August gubernatorial primary before the legislature could enact it. But sadly, with the Supreme Court's implicit blessing, the odds are in its favor.