Progress Illinois

Yesterday, at a downtown luncheon headlined by Michelle Obama, NBC5's Carol Marin found a variety of women who strongly supported Barack Obama for president. Even Paula Wolff, a longtime aide to GOP Gov. Jim Thompson, expressed her support for him, saying it was the first time she has supported a Democratic presidential candidate "publicly." But Marin also spent some time chatting with an old friend who expressed a different view of Obama:

A few hours after leaving the "Women for Obama" luncheon, I ran into Sarah, not her real name. I've known her for a few years. A single mom, she free-lances, working as many jobs as she can to support two growing boys. She dreams of a permanent gig with benefits, but it's still just a dream.

A 37-year-old Democrat, she is also a college grad and a news junkie who has watched this campaign like a hawk. She surprised me with her anger Tuesday, saying she's voting for McCain.

To Sarah, Barack Obama is like the organic chicken at lunch. Sleek, elegant, beautifully prepared. Too cool.

Pivoting from this anecdote, Marin points out that while Obama led John McCain 55 percent to 36 percent among women in a July 15 Quinnipiac University poll, "the margin was far smaller among independent women, who preferred Obama by just three points, 45 percent to 42 percent." She also notes an AP/Yahoo News survey which "found that just 12 percent of former Clinton supporters say they are excited about Obama."

But context matters! As Frank Rich reminded us in June, John Kerry only won women voters by three points. Al Gore? Eleven points. That puts Obama's lead in stark perspective, especially considering that he holds a wider advantage among this group than either Kerry (47 to 46 percent) or Gore (50 to 41 percent) did at this stage in 2004 and 2000, respectively.

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In an article in today's New York Times, Adam Nagourney reported on new polling purportedly showing that racial attitudes remain unchanged by Barack Obama's campaign and that the Illinois Senator is struggling to appeal to white Americans. We even highlighted it in the Early Bird, assuming the analysis was fundamentally fair. But as the folks at Obama headquarters have noted, what Nagourney left out was just as important as what he included. Via TPM, which received a detailed critique of the piece from Obama's press camp:

"The NYT story about their poll ignores multiple and significant pieces of data that actually indicate a trend much different from that which the story suggests."

The campaign offered some "straightforward points from their data" that were omitted from the story. Among these factoids:

More white voters say Obama cares about people like them than say the same thing about McCain by 31 to 23 percent.

Obama's 31 percent favorable rating among white voters is virtually identical to McCain's 34 percent level.

White voters are more likely to say that Obama would improve America's image in the world by a two-to-one margin over the Republican nominee.

Obama is winning by six points against McCain while he only trails among white voters by nine points --- a margin smaller than independent expert on voting patterns, Ruy Texiera, said would give Obama a "solid win."

As Talk Left points out, the key finding in the poll should have been McCain's ties to the Bush economic polices. Sixty-three percent of respondents said McCain would continue that agenda, while only 20 percent said they approve of it.

Should the Republicans rejoice? Has their presidential candidate weathered the Obama storm? The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza flagged some national polls yesterday that suggest John McCain might be closer to Barack Obama than people realize, aided by a boost among Independent voters:

Take the most recent poll by Newsweek magazine on the presidential race. Obama takes 44 percent of the vote while McCain receives 41 percent, a statistically insignificant margin and a major change from the 15-point bulge for Obama in the same poll less than a month ago.

This follows news of solid June fundraising for the Republican nominee, which has allowed him to outspend Obama on the air in places like Missouri. While such news isn't encouraging for lefties, The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder and Sean at FiveThirtyEight.com both throw some water on the flames. First, here's Ambinder contextualizing the polling:

First, don't fall for the availability heuristic and obsess over just the latest poll, which comes courtesy of Newsweek. The poll of polls and internal campaign polling for both campaign gives Obama a lead of anywhere between four and nine points using a tight likely voter model.

It's almost an axiom of modern political polling that, depending on the question and the sample, surveyees extremely susceptible to daily, even hourly, shifts in elite opinion. Voters are paying attention to the big picture, but they're not paying attention to the details just yet. Methodological differences account for random fluctuations, as do random fluctuations. As both candidates have had rough weeks, it's entirely predictable that these polls would regress to a mean.

He suggests that state polling is a better indicator of each candidate's strength, and FiveThirtyEight's regression model currently gives Obama a 68.8 percent chance of winning the race, netting over 307 electoral votes. Pollster also shows Obama with sizeable leads in Ohio (a must-win for the GOP), Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, and Iowa, to name a few.

With regards to campaign strategy and outreach, it's important to look beyond the headlines.

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More Poverty-Related Coverage, Please
According to a poll conducted by the group Spotlight on Poverty and Opportunity, 56 percent of respondents disagreed with this statement: "The media has spent an adequate amount of time during the presidential campaign covering the issue of how to fight poverty in the U.S.” A study released earlier in the year by Spotlight found that the mentions of poverty in the media's primary coverage had increased substantially. But the poll results suggest "voters still want to hear even more," according to Spotlight editor John Freedman. He told The Politico that he thinks the increased interest is directly tied to the "tightening" of the economy nationwide.

The Muslim Myth Keeps Growing
A new Pew poll has Obama leading McCain nationally by a 48-40 percent margin, which represents a slight uptick since their last poll in May. While that's good news, the poll also found that the percentage of respondents who identify Obama as Muslim has grown from 10 percent in May to 12 percent in the most recent survey. Kind of amazing when you think about it.

North Dakota? Really?
A Rasmussen poll has Obama and McCain tied in ... North Dakota. To provide a little context, President Bush beat John Kerry there in 2004 by a 27-point margin.

McCain Regains Missouri Lead
Last month, Obama was up 43-42 percent over McCain in Missouri. A Rasmussen poll released yesterday has McCain up by five. It's worth noting that McCain has been flooding the Show-Me State airwaves with ads as of late.

A new Quinnipiac poll has Barack Obama leading John McCain by 13 points in neighboring Wisconsin:

Wisconsin women likely voters back Obama 53 - 37 percent while men back the Democrat 51 - 40 percent. White voters back Obama 49 - 42 percent. He leads 61 - 35 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 52 - 39 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 47 - 41 percent among voters over 55.

Quinnipiac polled two other Midwestern states as well, finding Obama with a six-point lead in Michigan and a 17-point lead in Minnesota.

In other Wisconsin news, be sure to check out Sen. Russ Feingold's interview with The Young Turks yesterday. He clearly articulates his frustration with the Democratic leadership in Washington and their handling of this latest FISA "compromise" bill. Here's a taste:

Well, I'm hoping that we have a very good election result in the House and the Senate, and elect President Obama. And then I think the excuses will all be over. I think that people will realize either we're going to be Democrats or we're not. So I am hopeful that people will no longer be intimidated. But I worry a great deal. Because I thought that was the message of the 2006 election and the performance when it comes to the areas of Iraq, and civil liberties in the constitution have not been good, and I really do regret it.

Well, it's a good thing the Obama campaign isn't ignoring Indiana. A SurveyUSA poll released today shows that it's a dead heat in the Hoosier State: Barack Obama garners 48 percent of the vote, John McCain 47 percent, and 2 percent remain undecided.

News from Michigan is good today as well. Public Policy Polling gives Obama a nine point edge (pdf), 48 to 39 percent.  Obama has seen his lead there extend since he started to campaign in the state.

(H/T Atrios and PSB)

Two weeks ago, we highlighted a Los Angeles Times article that showed Obama leading McCain among Latino voters in several polls -- a welcome surprise given his relative lack of Latino support during the Democratic primary. Yesterday, the LA Times plucked some more good news out of the polling universe:

[...] Obama should be heartened by a new poll that focused solely on Latino voters in 21 states.

The survey, conducted by Pacific Market Research and political scientists at the University of Washington, found Obama's level of support approaching what Democratic presidential candidates -- until the 2004 election -- had come to count on.

Obama swamped McCain in the survey, 60% to 23%, with 16% undecided. The poll's margin of error was plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

Here are some more details on the University of Washington/Pacific Market Research survey:

Obama's lead among Latinos is consistent among those born in the U.S. and those born abroad. Among U.S.-born Latinos, Obama leads McCain 57 percent to 26 percent, and among foreign-born Latinos, 64 percent to 21 percent.

Likewise, Obama does well among Latinos across many states. In California, he leads 66 percent to 20 percent; in New York, 65 percent to 20 percent; in Texas, 61 percent to 22 percent. Combining data in the four southwestern states expected to be key battlegrounds -- New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada -- Obama leads McCain 57 percent to 31 percent among Latino voters. In Florida, where about half of Latino voters are Cuban-American, Obama has 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent. The poll's margin of error is 3.5 percent.

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll has been getting a lot of press lately. While showing that Barack Obama enjoyed a noticeable bump in support from women since Hillary Clinton exited the presidential race, the survey appears to indicate that Obama is less popular than McCain among suburban females. Specifically, the poll indicated that suburban women favored McCain by six points, 44-38 percent. The findings were trumpeted most noticeably by MSNBC, which has suggested that Obama has "Woman Trouble."

One little problem though: the poll is likely meaningless. The Huffington Post explains:

MSNBC has now provided The Huffington Post with more information on its "suburban women" finding showing a 44-38 McCain lead over Obama. "This is within the margin of error of 9.34 percent based on a sample size of 110 within the larger poll," an MSNBC source wrote over email. (That's three times the margin of error for the entire poll.) This means McCain's 44 percent figure of support among suburban women could actually be as low as 35 percent, while Obama's 38 percent figure could rise as high as 47 percent. Alternatively, McCain could be leading Obama 53-29. Bottom line: that much variance renders the finding of little statistical use.

A pair of polls released today show Barack Obama gaining steam in two neighboring border states -- both of which will be crucial targets in November's presidential contest.

In Iowa, a new Rasmussen poll gives the Illinois senator a solid 45-38 percent lead over John McCain, outside of the poll's 4 percent margin of error. And to the north, a UW-WisPolitics.com survey puts Obama 13 points ahead in Wisconsin. Both results represent a sizeable jump from more recent polling, likely the result of Obama cinching up the nomination in the past week.

A moderate bounce has also been evident on the national stage, according to CNN's "poll of polls":

The Illinois senator now holds a 5 point lead over McCain among registered voters, 48 percent to 43 percent. In a CNN poll of polls conducted earlier this week, Obama's lead stood at 4 points, and in an average of national polls shortly before Hillary Clinton dropped out of the presidential race, Obama only held a 3 point lead over the Arizona senator.

The poll of polls consists of three recent surveys by Gallup, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and CNN/Opinion Research Corporation.

For those who've spent the past month toying endlessly with the youth and minority turnout model created by statistician and FiveThirtyEight.com author Nate Silver, boy have we got a treat for you: a new version of the model with updated baseline figures!

You can download it here. To play around with different turnout scenarios just change the percentages in the yellow box at the top and recalculate (hit F9 on a PC, or Command + = on a Mac).

Be sure to check out the profile of Silver in the latest issue of Newsweek (and, of course, my interview with him from last week).

Also, our own Adam Doster has an In These Times cover story on the potential of Barack Obama's "Vote for Change" 50-state voter registration drive. Adam prominently highlights our piece on the "Poblano Model." Here's an excerpt:

Vote for Change is the latest iteration of the Obama campaign’s comprehensive electoral ground game, one that will build off the methodical and underreported registration efforts staged by Obama supporters during the primary season. Just in the late contests alone, campaign volunteers enlisted 200,000 new Democrats in Pennsylvania, 165,000 in North Carolina and more than 150,000 in Indiana.

“Recent voter registration drives conducted by our campaign have registered significant numbers of voters across this country,” says Obama spokeswoman Shannon Gilson. “We feel like this really scratches the surface of what’s possible."