Polling

Kirk Claims 5-10 Point Lead "The Whole Way Through"

Josh Kalven — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 13:15:01 -0800

GOP Rep. Mark Kirk -- who hasn't released an internal poll since mid-September -- asserted yesterday that polls have shown him running "five to ten points ahead of my opponent the whole way through." From CBS 2's report on the 10th Congressional District race:

The whole way through, huh?

Poll Finds 66% Support Progressive Income Tax In Illinois

Angela Caputo — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 15:12:55 -0700

While conservatives have attempted to cast the prospect of a progressive income tax as class warfare, a new poll suggests a majority of people in Illinois think it's a pretty sensible idea.

The survey (PDF) by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found that 66 percent of respondents favored raising income tax rates on the wealthiest Illinois resident. Another 29 percent oppose the idea and 5 percent declined to take a position either way. The poll was conducted between Sept. 23 and Oct. 17 and included 800 voters.

As the results of the other tax-related questions show, instituting a progressive tax was by far the most popular revenue generating proposal:

To raise the state portion of the sales tax rate:
Favor 17.0%
Oppose 78.1%
DK/NA 4.9%

To expand the sales tax to cover services, for example, dry cleaning, haircuts, accounting, and so forth:
Favor 28.4%
Oppose 67.6%
DK/NA 4.0%

To expand legalized gambling in Illinois:
Favor 46.6%
Oppose 46.9%
DK/NA 6.5%

To sell or lease state assets, such as the lottery and the Illinois toll road system, to private investors:
Favor 37.8%
Oppose 52.2%
DK/NA 9.9%

A progressive income tax rate isn't exactly a revolutionary proposal. Despite the conservative rhetoric. Illinois is one of only seven states in the nation to impose a flat income tax rate. In another 33 states, the highest earners face a bigger tax burden.

Aside from putting a strain on the government, the regressive tax policy has also widened the state's wealth gap. Currently, Illinois is among the 10 least equitable states in the nation, the Washington, D.C.-based Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy reports. In 2006, for example, the wealthiest 1 percent of Illinoisans took home 21 percent of the state's entire gross earnings, while the bottom 50 percent of workers, combined, earned 12 percent.

The idea of instituting a progressive tax gained some traction last spring when State Rep. Mike Smith (D-Canton) introduced a resolution to amend the constitution and increase the tax rate to six percent on households earning more than $250,000 a year. Currently, all Illinois residents pay three percent. The legislature fell short of the 3/5 majority needed to pass the measure. But a vote of 52 yeas to 60 nays was encouraging, said Chrissy Mancici, budget director at the Center For Tax and Budget Accountability.

The plan would have generated an additional $3 billion annually for schools, infrastructure, and a tax relief fund. That kind of money would come in handy at the moment as state officials grapple with a $1.4 billion budget gap. Considering that personal income topped $10 billion this year, the state would have had a much easier time balancing it's budget under a more progressive tax system.

"If you set the scale and actually taxed the wealth in Illinois, you'd be able to fix Medicaid and the pension problems," Mancini said. "The Paul Simon study shows us that the public will is there ... It's going to take (lawmakers) in Springfield to go out on a limb to pass it."

New Research 2000 Poll: Seals 49%, Kirk 43%

Josh Kalven — Fri, 24 Oct 2008 13:07:20 -0700

In a poll commissioned by Daily Kos and conducted October 20-22, Research 2000 found 10th District Democratic challenger Dan Seals leading GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by six points, 49-43 percent. From Markos' write-up:

Last time we polled this race, the Kirk campaign absolutely freaked out, accusing us of being anti-semitic because we (admittedly) polled during Rosh Hashanah in one of the most Jewish districts in the country. Their argument was that it was our dastardly evil plot to disenfranchise Jews, which was weird since Jewish voters are some of the most loyal Democrats in the country. Our theory was that we had undercounted Seals support in that first poll because of its timing, but Kirk saw it differently.

Hilariously, a few days after our poll, SUSA came up with their own, and that one had SEALS up 52-44. Suddenly, the Kirk campaign loved our poll, and used it to push back against the SUSA one which, unfortunately for Kirk, wasn't conducted during a high holy Jewish holiday.

Neither was this one. So what has changed? Undecided voters. Seals went from 70-12 among Democrats to 83-10.

Roll Call Poll: Halvorson 50%, Ozinga 37%

Josh Kalven — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 09:21:08 -0700

Roll Call has conducted the latest poll in the 11th Congressional District, and like the internal survey released on Friday and our own poll published on Monday, this one shows Democrat Debbie Halvorson with support in the 50 percent range and a double-digit lead over her Republican opponent:

Survey USA for Roll Call. 10/20-21. Likely voters. MoE 4%

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50%
Marty Ozinga (R): 37%
Jason Wallace (G): 9%

The new survey also undermines the Ozinga camp's complaints about our poll in the 11th District. The SouthtownStar reported yesterday that campaign manager Andy Sere questioned the "reliability" of our poll because it left out Green Party candidate Jason Wallace. However, Roll Call reports that Wallace appears to be hurting Ozinga:

The third-party candidate also appears to be helping Halvorson, siphoning off more votes from registered Republicans than registered Democrats in the poll, as well as 20 percent of the vote from self-described independents.

(H/T Capitol Fax)

In IL-6 And IL-13, Democrats Hold Big Advantage On Economy, Energy

Josh Kalven — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 13:31:59 -0700

The Washington Post's Ben Pershing talks to Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher about the effect of the financial crisis on his down-ballot findings. Belcher points to his surveys in Illinois' 6th and 13th congressional districts as evidence that support for incumbent Republicans seems to be weakening:

"It was already shaping up to be a 'change' election ... but over the last three weeks we've seen even more Republican districts open up, with Independent voters taking a look at Democrats," Belcher said in an interview last week. "It's a 'change plus economics' election. So you have these two cross-pressures."

In Illinois' 13th district, an exurban Chicago seat where veteran Rep. Judy Biggert (R) is running for re-election, Belcher found that voters trust Democrats to fix the economy more than Republicans by a 19-point margin. They gave Democrats a 15-point edge on energy issues and an 11-point advantage on the broad question of which party "shares your values." And that's all in a district where President Bush won by 10 points in 2004 and 13 points in 2000.

The story is similar in the neighboring 6th district of freshman Rep. Peter Roskam (R). The seat has long leaned Republican -- Bush won it by 6 points in 2004 -- but now, Belcher found, Democrats have a 14-point edge on the economy and a 15-point lead on energy.

Pershing goes on to note that the GOP deficit on these issues doesn't necessarily mean that the 6th and 13th are going to turn blue come Election Day. But he concludes by writing that "the numbers indicate that some seemingly-safe members like Biggert or Roskam are going to lose."

Progress Illinois Poll In IL-11: Halvorson 50%, Ozinga 29%

Josh Kalven — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 07:32:40 -0700

Bennett, Petts, & Normington for Progress Illinois. 10/15-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%:

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50%
Martin Ozinga (R): 29%
Undecided: 22%

The 11th Congressional District poll conducted for Progress Illinois by the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington found a 21-point lead for Democrat Debbie Halvorson, similar to the 19-point gap in the internal poll she released on Friday (which included Green Party candidate Jason Wallace).

Republican Marty Ozinga's unfavorables (30%) continue to outweigh his favorables (20%), which certainly spells trouble. Independents made up 42 percent of the polling universe in our poll and they also appear extremely wary of Ozinga, with only 14 percent saying they support him and 41 percent still on the fence.

While Barack Obama posted an 11-point lead in the district, an identical number of independents remain undecided on the presidential race.

Gov. Rod Blagojevich's numbers mirror those in our 10th District poll, with only 10 percent holding a favorable view of him. Meanwhile, 38 percent of respondents were unaware of the constitutional convention question on the Illinois ballot this year. Of those aware, 29 percent supported the idea of holding a Con-Con and 44 percent opposed it.

More detail below.

Methodology:

This is a telephone survey among 400 registered voters in the 11th Congressional District of Illinois who are likely to vote in the general election in November 2008. The survey was conducted from October 15-16, 2008 by trained, professional interviewers following procedures established by Bennett, Petts & Normington.

All polls are subject to errors caused by interviewing a sample of persons, rather than the entire population. In 95 cases out of 100, the responses to this survey should fall within plus or minus 4.9 percentage points of those that would have been obtained from interviewing the entire population of likely voters in the 11th Congressional District of Illinois. The sampling error for subgroups of the survey will be greater.

The data have been weighted by age and race to better reflect the composition of the electorate.

Partisan breakdown:

Democrats: 33%
Republicans: 25%
Independents: 42%

Head-to-head toplines:

Favorability ratings:

Halvorson
Favorable: 31%
Unfavorable: 17%
Neutral: 16%

Ozinga
Favorable: 20%
Unfavorable: 30%
Neutral: 16%

Obama
Favorable: 55%
Unfavorable: 32%
Neutral: 9%

McCain
Favorable: 47%
Unfavorable: 37%
Neutral: 12%

Blagojevich
Favorable: 10%
Unfavorable: 74%
Neutral: 11%

Presidential numbers:

Barack Obama (D): 49%
John McCain (R): 38%
Undecided: 13%

Issues:

I’m going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me which one you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM that you would like to see your next representative in Congress do something about?

The economy and jobs ..................................... 45%
The financial crisis ............................................ 17
The war in Iraq .................................................. 8
Gas and energy prices ...................................... 8
Health care ........................................................ 7
Illegal immigration ............................................. 7
Taxes ................................................................. 5
(DON'T KNOW) ................................................. 4

On the constitutional convention, we first asked respondents if they were aware that the question was on the ballot this year:

First, are you aware or not aware that this November voters in Illinois will be asked to decide if we should hold a constitutional convention, for the purpose of preparing a new state constitution?

Aware: 62%
Unaware: 38%

If aware, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE Illinois holding a constitutional convention?

Support: 29%
Oppose: 44%
Undecided: 27%

Progress Illinois Poll In IL-10: Kirk 47%, Seals 41%

Josh Kalven — Sun, 19 Oct 2008 12:53:12 -0700

Bennett, Petts, & Normington for Progress Illinois. 10/15-16. Likely voters. MoE 4.9%:

Dan Seals (D): 41%
Mark Kirk (R): 47%
Undecided: 12%

In the middle of last week, the Washington D.C.-based polling firm Bennett, Petts & Normington conducted the above survey for Progress Illinois in the 10th Congressional District. The results are very similar to the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted two weeks earlier, which also found Democratic challenger Dan Seals down by six points (44-38%).

That both GOP Rep. Mark Kirk's support and job approval fell under 50 percent is good news for Seals. He remains within striking distance and a big boost in Democratic turnout on Election Day could make all the difference. As we've reported, both SEIU and the Illinois Coalition for Refugee Rights have been doing a great deal of work in the district to register and turn out Democratic-leaning voters. Meanwhile, there still appear to be a considerable number of undecided Democrats and Independents up for grabs.

Seals' recent barrage of television advertising seems to have boosted his name-ID in the district. While 29 percent of respondents didn't recognize him in the Daily Kos poll, that figure was 16 percent in our survey.

The poll found that over a third of respondents were unaware of the constitutional convention question on this year's ballot. Of those who were aware, 21 percent favored holding a Con-Con and 45 percent opposed the idea. Furthermore, we found that Gov. Rod Blagojevich has a 10 percent favorability rating in the district.

More detail below.

Methodology:

This is a telephone survey among 400 registered voters in the 10th Congressional District of Illinois who are likely to vote in the general election in November 2008. The survey was conducted from October 15-16, 2008 by trained, professional interviewers following procedures established by Bennett, Petts & Normington.

All polls are subject to errors caused by interviewing a sample of persons, rather than the entire population. In 95 cases out of 100, the responses to this survey should fall within plus or minus 4.9 percentage points of those that would have been obtained from interviewing the entire population of likely voters in the 10th Congressional District of Illinois. The sampling error for subgroups of the survey will be greater.

The data have been weighted by age and race to better reflect the composition of the electorate.

Partisan breakdown*:

Democrats: 34%
Republicans: 28%
Independents: 38%

Head-to-head toplines*:

Kirk job approval:

Excellent: 11%
Good: 38%
Fair: 32%
Poor: 6%
Don't Know: 13%

Favorability ratings:

Kirk
Favorable: 50%
Unfavorable: 21%
Neutral: 21%

Seals
Favorable: 42%
Unfavorable: 26%
Neutral: 16%

Obama
Favorable: 68%
Unfavorable: 22%
Neutral: 9%

McCain
Favorable: 46%
Unfavorable: 40%
Neutral: 14%

Blagojevich
Favorable: 10%
Unfavorable: 74%
Neutral: 11%

Presidential numbers:

Barack Obama (D): 56%
John McCain (R): 35%
Undecided: 9%

Issues:

I’m going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me which one you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM that you would like to see your next representative in Congress do something about?

The economy and jobs ..................................... 48%
The financial crisis ............................................ 18
The war in Iraq .................................................. 10
Taxes .................................................................. 7
Health care ......................................................... 6
Gas and energy prices ........................................ 4
Illegal immigration ............................................... 4
(DON'T KNOW) .................................................. 2

On the constitutional convention, we first asked respondents if they were aware that the question was on the ballot this year:

First, are you aware or not aware that this November voters in Illinois will be asked to decide if we should hold a constitutional convention, for the purpose of preparing a new state constitution?

Aware: 64%
Unaware: 36%

If aware, do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE Illinois holding a constitutional convention?

Support: 21%
Oppose: 45%
Undecided: 35%

* The original version of this post had the percentage of Independent and Republican respondents mixed up. The Republican percentages for Seals and Kirk were also flipped. Apologies for any confusion.

Poll Finds Majority Support For Con-Con

Angela Caputo — Thu, 09 Oct 2008 13:26:50 -0700

UPDATE: Since posting these numbers, we've learned that they are an incomplete and misleading representation of what the poll found. Please see our October 10 post to get the full story.

After alluding to the results last week, the Con-Con Yes folks have released a statewide poll they commissioned which suggests a majority of Illinoisans like the idea of calling a constitutional convention.

Overall, 58 percent of the 1,000 likely Illinois voters surveyed currently favor a Con-Con. That's just short of the 60 percent mark that would be required to vote "yes" in order to initiate the convention process. The poll found that 21 percent are opposed to the idea, with 21 percent undecided.

Here's a glimpse at some additional results from the Rasmussen poll, which was conducted September 25-26:

Generally speaking do you feel things in the state of Illinois are going in the right direction or have they gotten off track? 8% Right Direction, 82% Wrong Track, 9% Not Sure

How would you rate the job of the Illinois Legislature? 2% Strongly approve, 25% Somewhat approve, 37% Somewhat disapprove, 33% Strongly disapprove, 3% Not Sure

Generally speaking how satisfied are you with the way the Illinois state government's elected officials provide funding for public education? 6% Very satisfied, 25% Somewhat satisfied, 35% Not very satisfied, 33% Not at all satisfied, 2% Not Sure

So, to sum things up: A wide majority of people polled think that Illinois schools are underfunded, elected officials are inefficient, and the state is headed in the wrong direction. Will this angst generate enough support for a constitutional convention? We'll know Nov. 4.

CORRECTION: This post originally reported that the poll was conducted by Rasmussen Reports because that is what ConConYes' press release and memo stated. They have now informed us that the survey was actually conducted by Pulse Opinion Research.

Roll Call/Survey USA Poll Shows Seals Ahead By Eight

Josh Kalven — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 06:42:37 -0700

A new poll released late yesterday by Roll Call and conducted by Survey USA (FiveThirtyEight's second highest rated pollster) found Democrat Dan Seals leading GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by eight points in the 10th Congressional District, 52-44 percent. From the write-up (subscription required):

SurveyUSA, an automated polling firm, conducted the surveys for Roll Call on Saturday and Sunday (WHAS-TV in Louisville was a partner on the poll in Indiana’s 9th district). Each poll tested more than 600 voters and had an error margin of roughly 4 points (for complete details, see chart at right). [...]

Kirk has thrived politically despite the liberal lean of his suburban Chicago district. But Seals, running with little help from the national party, came within 7 points of the Republican in 2006. But the DCCC is playing in the district this year, and Kirk saw it coming: He has raised an astounding $4.6 million for the race so far.

But even that amount of money might not be able to get Kirk past Seals in what is shaping up to be a Democratic year, especially with a Chicago Democrat at the top of the ticket. In the SurveyUSA poll, Obama led McCain in the district 62 percent to 36 percent — a margin that’s 20 points greater than Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) margin over Bush in the 2004 White House election.

The Survey USA poll comes on the heels of a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll released over the weekend that put Seals behind by six (and sent the Kirk campaign into a tizzy). Archpundit notes that Kirk came in at 44 percent in both polls and suggests a possible reason for the disparity in Seals' numbers:

Survey USA’s technique are robopolls and so they tend to push everyone to a choice even if they are undecided. What this could (all caveats again) be saying is that the undecideds are leaning Democratic.

Seems like a reasonable conclusion.

Research 2000 Poll Shows Seals Trailing By Only Six Points

Josh Kalven — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 14:45:12 -0700

On Friday's edition of WTTW's Chicago Tonight, the "Week In Review" panel discussed Illinois' tightest congressional races, specifically the contests in the 10th and 11th districts. While discussing the former, NBC5's Mary Ann Ahern described GOP Rep. Mark Kirk as "doing very well so far in the polls" vis-a-vis Democratic challenger Dan Seals. This left me scratching my head a bit because, over the past two months, we've seen only two polls out of the 10th, both of them internals. A poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found Seals trailing Kirk by only seven in mid-August. Meanwhile, a poll paid for by the Kirk campaign in mid-September found the incumbent with a 22-point lead.

Well, now there's a new poll on the scene, commissioned by the liberal website Daily Kos and conducted by the nonpartisan Research 2000 between September 30 and October 1. It shows Kirk leading Seals by only six points, 44-38 percent.

As the Swing State Project noted after Kirk released his internal poll last month, the cross-tabs suggested the campaign was seriously oversampling Republicans:

The partisan breakdown of the [Kirk] poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I've seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity.

The Research 2000 poll doesn't put the percentage of Independents quite as high as Labels and Lists. But compared to the Kirk poll, there are six percent more Independents sampled and six percent less Republicans, which surely contributed to the vastly different results. Here's the breakdown:

Democrats: 139 (35%)
Republicans: 115 (29%)
Independents/Other: 146 (36%)

Seals' TV ads over the last month should also have also helped him, particularly considering that Kirk began saturating the local airwaves about a month earlier.