Progress Illinois

It's no secret that Illinois conservatives hate the Democrats' cap-and-trade legislation with a passion. Indeed, their intense opposition is likely what led U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kirk to backtrack from his earlier support for the House climate bill. So it's not surprising that the Republicans running for governor in Illinois would express reservations about the proposal in front of a packed "tea party forum" in Homer Glen last night.

But the GOP candidates didn't simply criticize cap-and-trade as the wrong way to address climate change -- four of them denied that humans have even contributed to global warming.

When asked whether they believe "climate change is caused by human activities," State Sens. Kirk Dillard (R-Hinsdale) and Bill Brady (R-Bloomington), DuPage County Board Chair Bob Schillerstrom, and commentator Dan Proft responded by rejecting that premise. Watch thevideo (pardon the shaky camera work):

Apparently Proft thinks that the 2,500 scientists and other climate experts who make up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) qualify as "enviro-terrorists."

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Some interesting news on the GOP side of the 2010 contest: Capitol Fax and others confirm that former state Republican Party chairman Andy McKenna has announced that he will run for governor with State Sen. Matt Murphy as his running mate. In recent months, Murphy had been ramping up a gubernatorial campaign of his own, but apparently was convinced by McKenna to lower his sights to lieutenant governor.

So what do we know about McKenna? Well, in attempting to trump up allegations of voter fraud in Lake County last October, he shamelessly advanced the false claim that a goldfish had been "registered to vote" there.  He also has a knack, in Aaron Chambers' words, for "taking rhetoric to an extraordinary height."  Case in point: At the state fair last year, he suggested that the Democratic infighting in Springfield is "more outrageous" than the struggle over slavery during Abraham Lincoln's time.  The quote:

“Abraham Lincoln was famous for his House Divided speech. If he were here today, he would have to tell a story of a house divided that’s even more outrageous than the one that lived in his time.”

This may give us some idea of what to expect from his gubernatorial campaign.

Durbin: The Public Option Is Not Dead

Is the public option dead in the U.S. Senate? Not according to Democratic Whip Dick Durbin, who denied moderator David Gregory's assertion on NBC's Meet the Press yesterday that votes in the upper chamber aren't there to pass a bill that includes a government-run health insurance plan. Watch it:

At the beginning of the clip, Durbin also says that he "can't presume any Republican senators at this point" will support the reform bills working through the Senate. Even though Democratic senators went well out of their way to include the GOP in their negotiations, it's become painfully obvious that the minority has no real interest in compromise. Even the two most open-minded Republican lawmakers, Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, are backing away from the table. Over the weekend, both expressed reservations about a public option trigger, which was Snowe's idea in the first place.  "There's nothing wrong with moving toward a compromise," blogs Ezra Klein today. "The problem comes when the compromise starts moving, too."

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Over the weekend, Illinois Review posted a series of short interviews with five prospective GOP gubernatorial candidates asking how each would solve Illinois' budget crisis. As you might expect from Republicans fighting it out in a primary, all five advocated in favor of holding the line or cutting tax rates. They also blasted the Democrats for what they characterized as out-of-control spending. But when it came to specifics, the candidates largely violated what we refer to as the "Civic Fed Rule"; i.e, they failed to sufficiently explain how they would close an estimated $10 billion deficit next year.

You can head over to Illinois Review to watch all of the videos (excluding Sen. Matt Murphy, who didn't participate). In the meantime, we've transcribed excerpts from each segment where the candidates provided the most specificity. Here's what they had to say:

Sen. Kirk Dillard:

We are going to manage this state. We’re going to get a handle on Medicaid, which is now our state’s largest expenditure by cracking down on fraud. I’ve just spend two different sessions with former Speaker Newt Gingrich of the United States House … And Speaker Gingrich believes that 10 percent of all Medicaid is fraud. It’s our state’s largest expenditure and I’m going to work with my colleagues like Sen. Dale Righter of Matton and certain professionals to manage the care we are doing in Medicaid.

Let's just entertain the unsubstantiated claim that 10 percent of Medicaid spending in Illinois constitutes waste. After all, it's not like some abuse doesn't occur. In 2007, the state spent $12.6 billion on the program. Trimming the program by 10 percent would net the state an additional $1.26 billion in revenue -- a substantial number, but not nearly enough to cover the state's bills.

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Here's our latest roundup on 2010 political news ...

Giannoulias Snags More Endorsements

Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias racked up a few more endorsements this week, including one from the Illinois Democratic County Chairman’s Association (ILDCCA)  on Wednesday. ILDCCA's President Alan Pirtle explained in a statement why the  local chairs are ready to throw their political organizations behind his Senate primary campaign:

"We feel that Alexi Giannoulias has the vision, work ethic, and skill to lead efforts to invest in American jobs and American workers [and] not give tax breaks to companies that ship our jobs overseas from a seat in the United States Senate. He has shown tremendous commitment to the people of Illinois and their values such that he will serve all of Illinois in an effective and honorable way."

Meanwhile, the executive committee and 48 local affiliates of the Laborers’ International Union of North America (LIUNA) voted unanimously to back Giannoulias as well. In his endorsement, LIUNA Vice President and Midwest Regional Manager John Penn made it clear that labor hasn't forgotten how Giannoulias went toe-to-toe with Wells Fargo when the bank tried to liquidate Hartmarx, Inc. and send its employees packing. From a statement:

"When a bank that does business with our state threatened to pull the plug on 1,000 Illinois jobs, Alexi told them they could forget about managing $8 billion in state money. The bank relented and the jobs were saved because Alexi stood up for Illinois workers. That’s the kind of leader we need in the U.S. Senate."

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The GOP loves to moralize about securing the sanctity of the electoral process. In Illinois, for example, Republicans in Lake County and in Springfield fought last year to protect against the scourge that is (non-existent) voter fraud. But when given the opportunity to extend voting rights, especially to communities largely excluded from the political process, they often stand in the way or simply sit on the sideline. A new bill Gov. Pat Quinn signed into law on Friday provides a great example.

Currently, state law requires that all registration applications be filed 29 days before Election Day. For the last five years, however, Illinois has offered potential voters a two-week grace period, during which someone who wants to participate but missed the original deadline can still sign up in person at the office of an election authority, usually the county clerk. HB 267 (now Public Act 96-0441), sponsored by Rep. Will Davis and Sen. James Meeks, extends that grace period one additional week, leaving only seven days between the final deadline and the opening of the polls.

Dan Johnson-Weinberger, who helped write the bill, originally thought it would have broad support.

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Roll Call has an article [subscription required] up today on the frustration among some Republicans -- both at the national level and here in the Prairie State -- regarding Rep. Mark Kirk's indecisiveness on a potential U.S. Senate bid. A few quotes:

“I know the National Republican Senatorial Committee is very frustrated with Mark Kirk because he was being indecisive,” said a Republican source familiar with the situation. [...]

“The other story coming out of this is the mismanagement of Mark’s rollout,” [a separate Republican operative from Illinois] said. “The NRSC is in a bind because this was a recruitment victory for them. They were saying all along that Mark Kirk was who they wanted.” [...]

One county chairman from a rural part of the state requested a conference call with all of the state’s GOP county chairmen and the Congressman on Thursday. According to sources familiar with the conference call, numerous county chairmen throughout the state said they did not want to see Kirk run because of his vote for cap-and-trade legislation.

“I was not on the call, but my understanding was that it not go well,” an Illinois Republican said.

The article goes on to quote yet another anonymous operative asserting that the party will ultimately coalesce around Kirk.  That should be fun to watch.

The "staring match" between GOP Rep. Mark Kirk and Republican state party chairman Andy McKenna seems to be over.  Capitol Fax just posted this statement from McKenna:

“As Party Chairman my goal has been to build Party unity. Mark Kirk and I met last evening as part of an ongoing discussion about the U. S. Senate race. I reassured Mark that if he chooses to be a candidate, I will not oppose him.”

So what can we take away from this whole episode? Greg Hinz pretty much sums it up:

Mr. Kirk is coming across as one big indecisive baby, who won't run unless Lisa Madigan doesn't, and maybe won't run if Andy McKenna does. It's all pretty inside stuff.  But Mr. Kirk is going to have to show a more solid face — and quickly — if he's to have any chance in what after all is a very blue state.

Republicans and conservatives categorically opposed to an income tax increase in Illinois have so far failed to make a convincing case that lawmakers can cut their way out of our gaping state deficit. (See, for example, the vague ideas put forth by the Civic Federation and State Sen. Matt Murphy in recent weeks.)

Now some Republican leaders think they have found their answer in the Taxpayer Action Board assessment (PDF) released last week. Speaking on WUIS Radio yesterday, House Minority Leader Tom Cross leaned heavily on the report when asked where smart cuts could be made to close the budget deficit. Listen here:

Internal mp3

CROSS: I think you have to explore [Medicaid managed care], you have to explore pensions. You’ve got a report that came out called the Taxpayer Action Board. And there are about 10 areas they talked about -- from cutting to Medicaid to pensions -- and I think you have to explore all of those and really exhaust all of those before you go down any other road of revenue.

We've already run through the problems with the managed care and two-tiered pension reforms that are repeatedly being cited on the airwaves. So it's no surprise that the TAB report, while helpful for pointing out some inefficiencies in state government, is no panacea. As Rich Miller wrote in his column last week, "this report is a good thing in that it shows without doubt that there is just no way for Illinois to fully cut itself out of this awful budget mess." Don't believe him? Maybe Steve Schnorf, former George Ryan budget director will change your mind.  From the "minority report" he co-wrote and appended to the TAB study (page 121):

My best personal estimate is that you will be able to save very little, if any, money in FY10. If I were working on the budget, I would be thrilled if there were $200 million in actual, achievable FY10 savings. I think it is also important to remember that our suggestions aren’t the ordained word, handed down from on high. I believe if you had appointed 30 different people, with 15 different consultants, you would likely be getting a very different set of proposals. Take everything we say to you with some grain of salt.

When pressed to come up with ways to address the state's gaping budget deficit without raising income taxes, Illinois Republicans and conservatives love to bring up former Gov. Rod Blagojevich's unilateral expansion of Medicaid. (In 2007, he issued an emergency regulation that increased income eligibility for the state's FamilyCare program from 185 percent of the federal poverty level to 400 percent -- equivalent to $83,000 for a family of four.)  Below are a few examples:

State Sen. Carole Pankau (R-Itasca): "Start looking at some of the illegal programs that the former governor put in place without any General Assembly approval to do that. ... The largest segment of our budget right now is Medicaid. That is our 600-pound gorilla."  (ABC 7's NewsViews, 6/7/09)

Illinois Policy Institute chairman John Tillman: "In 1998, there were 1.7 million people receiving Medicaid benefits.  Today there are 2.7 million people receiving Medicaid benefits. And yet the rate of insured is the same.  The reason that's happened is that we've raised the eligibility for Medicaid so that a man or woman or family making $80,000 is now getting taxpayer-subsidized health care." (WTTW's Chicago Tonight, 4/16/09)  

Chicago Tribune Editorial Board: "Quinn should drop the expensive and likely illegal expansion of coverage under Blagojevich: Roll back the FamilyCare program to levels legislators approved." ("12 Steps Before A Tax Hike," 3/17/09)

State Sen. Matt Murphy (R-Palatine): "Governor Blagojevich's failed Medicaid expansion has been a boondoggle -- roll it back." (WFLD's Fox Chicago Sunday, 3/15/09) 

And our personal favorite: 

Potential gubernatorial candidate Dan Proft: "Gov. Blagojevich, one of the charges for which he was impeached was for illegally expanding Medicaid to 400 percent of the poverty level. ... Blagojevich is gone.  That illegal expansion of that benefit is not.  Doubling the eligibility of Medicaid has resulted in a 33 percent increase in Medicaid spending by the state just in the last three fiscal years ... They're projecting about $18 million in Medicaid spending [in FY 2010].  So it would save you about $5 billion." (Public Affairs with Jeff Berkowitz, 6/2/09)

There are two reasons why citing Blagojevich's FamilyCare expansion in the context of the budget debate makes zero sense.

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