Progress Illinois

The latest from the 2010 electoral landscape ...

IL GOVERNOR

This morning, Rep, Mike Quigley formally endorsed Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, saying that "the best indication of future behavior is past performance."  Watch an excerpt from Quigley's remarks:

The Quinn campaign has also posted some highlights from UNITE-HERE's recent endorsement, which you can watch here.

U.S. SENATE

This morning, Republican Senate candidate and congressman Mark Kirk announced a $1.6 million third quarter fundraising haul:

Five-term GOP Congressman and Navy veteran Mark Kirk, the leading Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Illinois, today reported his campaign set a new single-quarter fundraising record for federal Republican candidates in Illinois raising more than $1.6 million. That brings the campaign’s total receipts for the election to more than $2.9 million with $2.3 million in the bank.

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The latest from Illinois' 2010 electoral landscape ...

U.S. SENATE

Rasmussen Reports released their first poll on the IL-SEN race yesterday, measuring head-to-head general election matchups between GOP Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic candidates Alexi Giannoulias and Cheryle Jackson.  The toplines show Kirk and Giannoulias in a toss-up, while Kirk posts a considerable lead over Jackson:

Giannoulias (D): 38
Kirk (R): 41
Other: 4
Undecided: 17

Jackson (D): 30
Kirk (R): 47
Other: 6
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)

The poll registered 83 percent name recognition for both Kirk and Giannoulias and 74 percent for Jackson.  Giannoulias was recognized by 70 percent of respondents in an April poll, so it seems feasible that he could his name ID could have jumped in the months since.  Kirk's numbers seem extremely high for a member of Congress who has never run for statewide office.  That being said, he probably gets more media coverage than any other Illinois representative.  Then there is Jackson's 74 percent name ID, which just seems unrealistic considering she's never run for office, let alone been on a statewide ballot.

In short, wait for a few other surveys to surface before putting too much stock in this poll.

In other U.S. Senate news, Jackson is facing questions about her role in the Blagojevich administration's Loop Lab School debacle. Meanwhile, Sun-Times columnist Laura Washington yesterday described the Jackson "playbook" as she sees it:

Rake in some heavy green. While her profile will attract some soft-focused free media, this political unknown needs money big time for TV commercial time.

Jackson's got to play the race and gender cards. She is assiduously wooing Emily's List, the powerful national PAC that backs women candidates. As Giannoulias has done in the Greek community, she must cultivate a national profile among prominent women and monied Democratic liberals.

The black "keep-the-seaters" are an unpredictable bunch, but they could come in handy, as well.

IL GOVERNOR

The Rasmussen poll also measured favorability for Gov. Pat Quinn, Comptroller Dan Hynes (who plans to challenge Quinn in next year's Democratic primary), as well as the various Republican contendors.  Here's what they found (favorable/unfavorable/not sure):

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Yesterday, Swing State Project got ahold of a poll conducted for 10th Congressional District candidate Dan Seals by Anzalone Liszt.  The survey shows Seals (the Democrats' IL-10 candidate in both 2006 and 2008) with much higher name identification than State Rep. Julie Hamos (83% to 18%, respectively).  Not surprisingly, he is also way, way ahead of her at this early juncture:

Dan Seals: 63
Julie Hamos: 8
Elliot Richardson: 2
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Despite Seals' built-in advantage, Hamos has a good amount of time to introduce herself to the district -- though she'll need to raise a good amount of early money to do it. Head over to SSP to read the full polling memo, which is clearly intended to discourage her from pursuing the seat.

Speaking of which, Hamos appeared on Bill Cameron's WLS show on August 2 and had an extended conversation about her personal history, the upcoming campaign, and the issues of the day.  During the interview, she noted that her campaign has so far secured $250,000 in donation pledges (up from the $200,000 figure she cited in her recent interview with Progress Illinois). Listen to the entire WLS segment here.

State Rep. Julie Hamos is ramping up her newly-announced bid for the 10th Congressional District seat and today added a big name to her list of endorsements and today added a big name to her list of endorsements. At a news conference this morning, Rep. Jan Schakowsky announced her support for Hamos, calling her "the best of the best" and citing her record of crafting meaningful public policy. "Given the challenges that our country and our people are facing today," Schakowsky said, "we need real problem-solvers in Washington." Watch some excerpts from the event:

This afternoon, State Rep. Julie Hamos is officially announcing her entry in the race for the 10th Congressional District seat being vacated by Republican Mark Kirk in 2010.  Yesterday, I had a chance to chat briefly with her about the race and her policy priorities if elected to the House of Representatives.  "This is an incredible opportunity to take an important district and turn it over [to the Democrats]," she said. "And I think I'm a strong candidate to be able to do that."

Reflecting on her years in Springfield, Hamos said, "I have a very strong and fertile record that I'm very proud of."  Specifically, she cited her work building coalitions around "local food" initiatives and advancing efforts to reform Tamms Correctional Facility.  Transportation remains one of her main areas of interest as well.  "On the first day [in Congress], I would ask to be on the transportation committee of one sort of another because I will want to continue to work on that." The environment and consumer credit regulation are some of her other priorities.

When asked what she views as her skill set, Hamos had this to say:

"Over the years, I have often begun by building coalitions around agendas.  And the coalitions continued down the path of creating really important public policies.  So one of those examples is children's mental health.  My work on domestic violence early in my career is an example of that.  This local food and farm job development is an example of that. I believe that I will continue as a congresswoman in the same vein, bringing people around the table and building coalitions.  I think it's the most empowering way to do this kind of policy work -- empowering for people to really get engaged." [...] 

"One of my strong suits is that I don't just introduce bills, send out a press release, and it's over.  I like to really track the progress and effective implementation of laws after they're passed."

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We've got a bunch of new tidbits on the 2010 electoral landscape.

U.S. SENATE

While the big news here is Alexi Giannoulias' announcement yesterday, the question still remains whether Merchandise Mart CEO Chris Kennedy is going to jump in this race (or any other, for that matter).  Over the weekend, a PI commenter left us a link to the following video.  It's unclear who produced it, but it's coming from the left and is clearly meant to let Kennedy know what type of opposition research would be used on him in the primary:

The same YouTube account posted a similar video back in May.

On the Republican side, Politico shines a light on Republican candidate Mark Kirk's continued backtracking on his support for the cap-and-trade legislation in the U.S. House.  That position provoked outrage from the right-wing and the blowback clearly rattled the North Shore congressman.

7th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

We hear there are still doubts about whether Rep. Danny Davis will officially enter the race for Cook Co. Board President.  Nonetheless, State Sen. Rickey Hendon is wasting no time laying the groundwork for a congressional campaign in the 7th District.  Appearing on Fox Chicago Sunday yesterday, he told the co-hosts that he has filed the necessary paperwork for a federal run.  During the interview, he had some harsh words for the military effort in Afghanistan. "All we're getting out of Afghanistan is cheap heroin on the streets of the city of Chicago that is destroying our communities," he said.  "We need to bring our troops home. That will help the economy."  He added, "Just because I like Barack, doesn't mean I'm always going to agree with him." Watch it:

10th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Following reports of an impending "announcement" last week, State Rep. Julie Hamos disclosed today that she will be officially entering the race for the 10th Congressional District tomorrow afternoon.  More on that to come.

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David Ormsby is reporting that State Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) is planning to announce her bid for the open 10th Congressional District seat early next week, "according to a Democratic source."  In doing so, she will join a Democratic field that currently includes State Sen. Michael Bond, former two-time candidate Dan Seals, Elliot Richardson, and perhaps State Sen. Terry Link.

We've written extensively about Hamos' legislative efforts on this site.  But her impending candidacy raises an important question:  Why is so hard to find qualified Democratic candidates who actually live in the 10th District? 

Seals resides just outside the IL-10 boundary and that fact was brought up constantly by GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in both the 2006 and 2008 campaign battles.

Hamos, meanwhile, lives in downtown Evanston, a couple of miles from the district line.  Rep. Susan Garrett recently told Roll Call that Hamos would likely move into the 10th if she decides to run. 

My understanding is that Bond lives in the neighboring 8th District. It's not clear if he plans to relocate.

Granted, there are many examples on both sides of the aisle of candidates residing outside of the district they are vying to represent. Nonetheless, it invites an easy line of attack from their opponents.  And in the case of the 10th District primary, it's getting a bit ridiculous.

Now that GOP Rep. Mark Kirk has officially launched his U.S. Senate bid, the race is on for his soon-to-be-vacated 10th Congressional District seat.  Having poured substantial sums of money into last year's unsuccessful challenge by Dan Seals, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) likely would have stayed away from the race in 2010 if Kirk had stayed put.  But with the seat open, you can bet they'll be targeting it once the general election rolls around.  The question is this: Who will emerge as the Democratic candidate?

Well, as Capitol Fax reports, Seals announced via email today that he plans to take a third shot at the district:

I am running to help the families of our community get back on solid ground. I have been struck by how this economic downturn has hit people of all communities and economic strata. I will work to make healthcare and energy costs more affordable, while focusing on job growth for our community. I know that President Obama shares these values, and I look forward to the opportunity to join President Obama in working towards a brighter future for our children and our community.

We wrote recently about State Sen. Michael Bond (D-Grayslake), who began raising money for a 10th District bid less than two months ago.  Susan Garrett (D-Lake Forest) is another state lawmaker thought to be considering a bid.  However, Roll Call reports today that she is staying put and Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston) is looking at the race:

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The federal filing deadline for the second quarter of 2009 passed this week.  Below you'll find the relevant totals for the U.S. Senate race as well as several potentially competitive House races:

Giannoulias' $1.6 million in cash-on-hand has already attracted some headlines, particularly considering that the other talked-about Democratic contenders -- Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson and Merchandise Mart Properties CEO Chris Kennedy -- have yet to start fundraising.

Meanwhile, State Sen. Michael Bond's lackluster fundraising numbers in the 10th Congressional District also raised some eyebrows.

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As we've repeatedly noted, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk seems to have set his sights on a U.S. Senate run.  If he ultimately takes the plunge, two-time Democratic challenger Dan Seals would be ready to go after his 10th District seat, according to an article today in Roll Call (subscription required):

“I think it’s a huge opportunity to pick up,” Illinois Democratic consultant Eric Adelstein said. “To his credit, [Kirk has] proven he’s pretty hard to beat.”

[Illinois Democratic consultant Eric] Adelstein said several Democrats will be interested in an open seat. The 2006 and 2008 Democratic nominee against Kirk, attorney Dan Seals, would likely run again if Kirk leaves, his former campaign manager Patrick Mogge confirmed.

“No one knows the 10th district better than Dan Seals,” Mogge said. “I know he’s interested in running again if it’s an open seat.”

While Adelstein predicts that Seals would clear the Democratic field, the article also mentions State Sens. Michael Bond and Susan Garrett as possible candidates should Kirk vacate the seat. On the Republican side, seven-term State Rep. Beth Coulson would reportedly consider running, even after narrowly surviving an intense re-election campaign in 2008. State Sens. Matt Murphy and Dan Duffy are rumored to be interested as well, but both might be too conservative for a district trending Democratic, according to John Russell, a onetime staffer to former Speaker Dennis Hastert. “Unless there is a Kirk or John Porter clone waiting in the wings with the ability to raise significant dollars," Russell told Roll Call, "the seat could belong to a moderate Democrat for the foreseeable future."