Dan Seals

Swing State Project Declares IL-10 A "Toss-Up"

Angela Caputo — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:15:59 -0700

Another bit of good news has emerged for Democrat Dan Seals who, as we noted earlier, is riding high after a new Roll Call/Survey USA poll gave him an eight-point lead over 10th District GOP incumbent Mark Kirk.

Based on the new polling, the Swing State Project reports today that it's shifted the race from "Lean Republican" into the "Tossup" category. Their explanation:

Of all the races that have been in SSP's "Lean Republican" column since March, this one's addition to the Tossup pile always seemed like an inevitable outcome -- it was just a matter of timing.

Two recently-released polls -- one from the DCCC and the other from R2K/DailyKos-- give GOP Rep. Mark Kirk a slight edge here, but both polls have the incumbent dangerously below 50%, leaving him vulnerable to a late Seals surge in a D+3 district that is set to deliver a big margin for Barack Obama in November. On top of it all, a new SurveyUSA poll is showing Seals leading by 52-44. While it's possible that that result is overstating things a bit, if there's one thing we've learned in the past few years, it's that Republicans are getting increasingly poorer at holding Dem-tilting districts. After all, let's not forget that Seals, a very talented candidate, outperformed his final internal polling during his 2006 race against Kirk by a full 15 points.

Roll Call/Survey USA Poll Shows Seals Ahead By Eight

Josh Kalven — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 06:42:37 -0700

A new poll released late yesterday by Roll Call and conducted by Survey USA (FiveThirtyEight's second highest rated pollster) found Democrat Dan Seals leading GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by eight points in the 10th Congressional District, 52-44 percent. From the write-up (subscription required):

SurveyUSA, an automated polling firm, conducted the surveys for Roll Call on Saturday and Sunday (WHAS-TV in Louisville was a partner on the poll in Indiana’s 9th district). Each poll tested more than 600 voters and had an error margin of roughly 4 points (for complete details, see chart at right). [...]

Kirk has thrived politically despite the liberal lean of his suburban Chicago district. But Seals, running with little help from the national party, came within 7 points of the Republican in 2006. But the DCCC is playing in the district this year, and Kirk saw it coming: He has raised an astounding $4.6 million for the race so far.

But even that amount of money might not be able to get Kirk past Seals in what is shaping up to be a Democratic year, especially with a Chicago Democrat at the top of the ticket. In the SurveyUSA poll, Obama led McCain in the district 62 percent to 36 percent — a margin that’s 20 points greater than Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) margin over Bush in the 2004 White House election.

The Survey USA poll comes on the heels of a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll released over the weekend that put Seals behind by six (and sent the Kirk campaign into a tizzy). Archpundit notes that Kirk came in at 44 percent in both polls and suggests a possible reason for the disparity in Seals' numbers:

Survey USA’s technique are robopolls and so they tend to push everyone to a choice even if they are undecided. What this could (all caveats again) be saying is that the undecideds are leaning Democratic.

Seems like a reasonable conclusion.

Mark Kirk Appears On NBC 5's City Desk

Josh Kalven — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 11:13:37 -0700

In an episode that filmed last week and aired yesterday morning, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic challenger Dan Seals appeared separately on NBC 5's City Desk. Host Carol Marin immediately asked Kirk why he refused to directly debate Seals on the program. Kirk first tried to deflect the question, then stated, "Actually it would have been fine with me." Watch it:

But while Kirk suggested it somehow wasn't his decision, the Seals campaign made clear yesterday that they were more than willing to debate the GOP incumbent on NBC 5's airwaves. From communications director Elisabeth Smith:

"Dan believes that it is important for voters in the 10th district to see where he and Mark Kirk differ on the issues, which is why he agreed to appear jointly with Kirk on City Desk. This is not the first time that a joint appearance has fallen through. Unfortunately, Mark Kirk continues to do everything in his power to run fast and hard from his record of voting nearly 90% of the time with Republicans and supporting President Bush's failed policies in Congress."

Kirk also told viewers that he "hopes everybody watches" his joint appearance with Seals before the Tribune editorial board last week. But as far as I can tell, the only coverage of that debate is this article, which focused on Kirk's comments about Sarah Palin. I've been unable to find any video of the joint appearance on the Tribune website or elsewhere. (If the video is out there somewhere, please leave the link in comments.)

Later in the interview, Marin asked Kirk about his initial support for the Iraq war. He responded by blaming the "faulty intelligence":

While plenty of bad intelligence did indeed surface in the run-up to the Iraq war, Kirk's answer omits a crucial part of the story: how the Bush administration suppressed the intelligence community's doubts about certain prewar claims and how they used highly questionable, alternative intelligence sources to make their case for war. For more on that story, read this Media Matters piece I penned in December 2005. Meanwhile, 10th District blogger Ellen Beth Gill offers her own rebuttal.

Seals Raises $700,000 In 3rd Quarter

Josh Kalven — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 08:07:12 -0700

After GOP Rep. Mark Kirk last week reported raising $850,000 during the third quarter, Democratic challenger Dan Seals announced some impressive numbers of his own this morning. From a press release:

Today, Democratic Congressional Candidate Dan Seals' campaign reported that it had raised over $700,000 in the 3rd financial quarter, posting their strongest quarterly numbers yet. While Mark Kirk's fundraising stalled—he reported raising less than he had during the 2nd financial quarter—Seals' campaign fundraising continued to build momentum, raising approximately $70,000 more than he had in the previous 3 month period.

On the tails of the Research 2000 poll released yesterday showing a six-point race, the Seals campaign has to be feeling pretty good today.

Research 2000 Poll Shows Seals Trailing By Only Six Points

Josh Kalven — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 14:45:12 -0700

On Friday's edition of WTTW's Chicago Tonight, the "Week In Review" panel discussed Illinois' tightest congressional races, specifically the contests in the 10th and 11th districts. While discussing the former, NBC5's Mary Ann Ahern described GOP Rep. Mark Kirk as "doing very well so far in the polls" vis-a-vis Democratic challenger Dan Seals. This left me scratching my head a bit because, over the past two months, we've seen only two polls out of the 10th, both of them internals. A poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found Seals trailing Kirk by only seven in mid-August. Meanwhile, a poll paid for by the Kirk campaign in mid-September found the incumbent with a 22-point lead.

Well, now there's a new poll on the scene, commissioned by the liberal website Daily Kos and conducted by the nonpartisan Research 2000 between September 30 and October 1. It shows Kirk leading Seals by only six points, 44-38 percent.

As the Swing State Project noted after Kirk released his internal poll last month, the cross-tabs suggested the campaign was seriously oversampling Republicans:

The partisan breakdown of the [Kirk] poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I've seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity.

The Research 2000 poll doesn't put the percentage of Independents quite as high as Labels and Lists. But compared to the Kirk poll, there are six percent more Independents sampled and six percent less Republicans, which surely contributed to the vastly different results. Here's the breakdown:

Democrats: 139 (35%)
Republicans: 115 (29%)
Independents/Other: 146 (36%)

Seals' TV ads over the last month should also have also helped him, particularly considering that Kirk began saturating the local airwaves about a month earlier.

Freedom's Watch Drops $150K Into IL-10

Adam Doster — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 14:28:52 -0700

Last week, a spokesman for the conservative group Freedom's Watch told the Daily Herald that it was "fair to say" the organization would spend "substantial" resources attacking 10th District congressional challenger Dan Seals up until Election Day. Today, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza defined "substantial":

In the past 10 days, Freedom's Watch has dropped more than $1.6 million on ads in six House races and two Senate contests. That spending comes after the group spent less than $40,000 on television ads between May and September, raising questions in many circles about whether the group would be a major factor in the fall election. [...]

Freedom's Watch spending
Colorado Senate: $659,212
Oregon Senate: $366,033
Alabama's 2nd district: $52,374
Illinois' 10th district: $155,298
Nevada's 3rd district: $115,510
New Jersey's 3rd district: $23,690
New Jersey's 7th district: $124,885
New Mexico's 1st district: $155,903

Keeping GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in office appears to be a top-priority of the neo-cons.

DCCC Poll Shows Seals Trailing By Seven In August

Josh Kalven — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 11:26:10 -0700

This afternoon, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released the results of a poll they conducted in mid-August, showing Democratic challenger Dan Seals trailing GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by seven points. This survey provides some contrast to the poll put out by the Kirk campaign last week -- conducted Sept. 10-11, with a 5.6 percent margin-of-error -- showing him with a commanding 22-point lead.

From the DCCC release:

A Global Strategy Group poll conducted August 17-19 of 400 likely voters with a 4.9% margin of error shows Dan Seals within striking distance of Congressman Mark Kirk 39%-46% with 14% undecided. After voters are informed with each candidates’ message and bio, Dan Seals comes out ahead 45%-40%.

At the presidential level, Illinois Senator Barack Obama leads the district 51%-36% over Senator John McCain. President Bush’s approval rating in the district is an abysmal 21%.

“Republican Congressman Kirk is clearly extremely vulnerable for voting with his Republican leadership 88% of the time,” said DCCC Midwest Regional Press Secretary Ryan Rudominer. “This race represents a clear choice between Barack Obama and Dan Seal’s real change agenda versus Mark Kirk and the failed Bush-McCain more of the same agenda. Facing an economic disaster, skyrocketing unemployment and President Bush’s $12 billion a month war plan, Illinois' 10th district voters are hungry for leaders like Dan Seals, who will turn the page on the failed Bush-Kirk policies of the past.”

In related news, here is the Seals campaign's latest ad:

About That Kirk-Seals Poll

Josh Kalven — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 11:13:54 -0700

Yesterday, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk's campaign released an internal poll showing him with a significant lead over Democratic challenger Dan Seals. Here are the head-to-head results:

Dan Seals (D): 29%
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 51%
Undecided: 21%

Today, the Swing State Project provides some much needed context:

On its face, those are some un-sexy numbers for Dan Seals. However, the partisan breakdown of the poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I've seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity. Also importantly, Kirk has saturated the airwaves (broadcast, cable, and radio) with $650K worth of ads in the last month. The DCCC has just started to enter the action here, sending out mailers and airing ads immediately after this poll was conducted

Dan Seals' New Ad: "Just Say No"

Josh Kalven — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 07:12:37 -0700

In addition to the two Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ads released in Illinois last week, 10th District Democratic challanger Dan Seals also put out a new TV spot hitting GOP Rep. Mark Kirk. In the ad, Seals highlights Kirk's record of supporting President Bush and says, "Sometimes you just have to have the courage to say no." Watch it:

Flashback: Kirk Made Only $7K The First Year He Ran For Congress

Josh Kalven — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 07:19:37 -0700

In an interview published yesterday, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, in Politico's words, "leveled some harsh, personal attacks against [Democratic challenger Dan] Seals, calling him an unemployed carpetbagger who wants to raise voters’ taxes."

Here's an excerpt:

“He [Seals] didn’t move into the district and has some résumé issues. He has no steady job. He made $5,000 in income this year. He has made a number of missteps,” Kirk said. ”One of the things my opponent wants to do is raise the capital gains tax. You don’t have to explain a capital gains tax cut in my district. They can spell it out to you in spades, what it has done for their family.”

This isn't the first time Kirk or his campaign have attempted to paint Seals as an unemployed freeloader. But rather than get into the fairness of this characterization, I'll instead explain why it's just blatantly hypocritical.

A little digging through Lexis led me to this March 23, 2000 Tribune article published during Kirk's initial run for the 10th Congressional District seat. The article reports that Kirk had taken a leave of absence from his job on the House International Relations Committee in October 1999 to focus on his run for Congress:

Kirk, a former Kenilworth resident, formerly worked as [then-GOP Rep. John] Porter's chief of staff and has worked in Washington the past 18 years as a congressional aide. His most recent job was counsel to the U.S. House International Relations Committee.

Kirk, who took a leave of absence from his Washington job last October so he could run for Porter's seat, said he looked forward to the contest with [Democrat Lauren Beth] Gash.

The above account is backed up by this Washington Times member profile, which reports: "It was from that post [on the House International Relations Committee] that Kirk took a leave of absence to return to Illinois and run for Congress himself." And sure enough, a look at Kirk's personal financial disclosure (PDF) filed in 2001 shows that he earned only $7,000 during the preceding year. That income came from his duty as an intelligence officer with the Naval Reserves (he embarked on brief training missions in both April and August 2000).

Let's be clear: there's nothing wrong with taking leave of absence to run for Congress. It's an extremely labor-intensive undertaking and tough to balance with a separate, full-time job. As Archpundit pointed out in July, it's even more difficult when -- like Seals -- you're challenging an incumbent who "is paid by the constituents, can mail to constituents with franking, can use [their] position to get [their] name out there, and generally have every advantage of incumbency."

What's wrong is attacking your opponent for taking some time off work when you did the same thing yourself as a first-time candidate.