Mark Kirk

Kirk's Latest False Proposition: Drill Here Or Buy From Venezuela

Adam Doster — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 15:36:22 -0700

The big news coming out of the Tribune's editorial board debate last week between 10th District congressional challenger Dan Seals and Rep. Mark Kirk was the GOP incumbent's statement regarding vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin -- a pick he lauded in early September, but about which he now has concerns.

Buried in the discussion about energy policy, however, was yet another misleading claim from Kirk regarding offshore oil drilling.

You may remember that back in June, Kirk falsely claimed that the Chinese were drilling for oil off the coast of Cuba. Two months later, he justified his support for offshore oil exploration by offering a false proposition between drilling here at home or buying oil from Iran, which we immediately debunked.

Sitting before the editorial board, Kirk's false proposition shifted to a different country:

KIRK: Then you go into the difficult choices. You should also expand exploring for American energy offshore. My opponent and I differ on this. I think you should absolutely expand for American energy offshore because, for a time, you will still be on oil. But the question is: is it Venezuelan oil or is it American oil? And I think it should be American.

Watch it:

We currently import over 1.3 million barrels of Venezuelan oil every day. The EIA estimates that opening up the Outer Contitnental Shelf would only increase production by about 200,000 barrels a day and "would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030." Regardless of whether or not we crack open the OCS, we will be importing a lot of Venezuelan oil until we ween ourselves off the resource. Like the Iran example, Kirk's math just makes no sense.

Swing State Project Declares IL-10 A "Toss-Up"

Angela Caputo — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 09:15:59 -0700

Another bit of good news has emerged for Democrat Dan Seals who, as we noted earlier, is riding high after a new Roll Call/Survey USA poll gave him an eight-point lead over 10th District GOP incumbent Mark Kirk.

Based on the new polling, the Swing State Project reports today that it's shifted the race from "Lean Republican" into the "Tossup" category. Their explanation:

Of all the races that have been in SSP's "Lean Republican" column since March, this one's addition to the Tossup pile always seemed like an inevitable outcome -- it was just a matter of timing.

Two recently-released polls -- one from the DCCC and the other from R2K/DailyKos-- give GOP Rep. Mark Kirk a slight edge here, but both polls have the incumbent dangerously below 50%, leaving him vulnerable to a late Seals surge in a D+3 district that is set to deliver a big margin for Barack Obama in November. On top of it all, a new SurveyUSA poll is showing Seals leading by 52-44. While it's possible that that result is overstating things a bit, if there's one thing we've learned in the past few years, it's that Republicans are getting increasingly poorer at holding Dem-tilting districts. After all, let's not forget that Seals, a very talented candidate, outperformed his final internal polling during his 2006 race against Kirk by a full 15 points.

Roll Call/Survey USA Poll Shows Seals Ahead By Eight

Josh Kalven — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 06:42:37 -0700

A new poll released late yesterday by Roll Call and conducted by Survey USA (FiveThirtyEight's second highest rated pollster) found Democrat Dan Seals leading GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by eight points in the 10th Congressional District, 52-44 percent. From the write-up (subscription required):

SurveyUSA, an automated polling firm, conducted the surveys for Roll Call on Saturday and Sunday (WHAS-TV in Louisville was a partner on the poll in Indiana’s 9th district). Each poll tested more than 600 voters and had an error margin of roughly 4 points (for complete details, see chart at right). [...]

Kirk has thrived politically despite the liberal lean of his suburban Chicago district. But Seals, running with little help from the national party, came within 7 points of the Republican in 2006. But the DCCC is playing in the district this year, and Kirk saw it coming: He has raised an astounding $4.6 million for the race so far.

But even that amount of money might not be able to get Kirk past Seals in what is shaping up to be a Democratic year, especially with a Chicago Democrat at the top of the ticket. In the SurveyUSA poll, Obama led McCain in the district 62 percent to 36 percent — a margin that’s 20 points greater than Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) margin over Bush in the 2004 White House election.

The Survey USA poll comes on the heels of a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll released over the weekend that put Seals behind by six (and sent the Kirk campaign into a tizzy). Archpundit notes that Kirk came in at 44 percent in both polls and suggests a possible reason for the disparity in Seals' numbers:

Survey USA’s technique are robopolls and so they tend to push everyone to a choice even if they are undecided. What this could (all caveats again) be saying is that the undecideds are leaning Democratic.

Seems like a reasonable conclusion.

Mark Kirk Appears On NBC 5's City Desk

Josh Kalven — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 11:13:37 -0700

In an episode that filmed last week and aired yesterday morning, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic challenger Dan Seals appeared separately on NBC 5's City Desk. Host Carol Marin immediately asked Kirk why he refused to directly debate Seals on the program. Kirk first tried to deflect the question, then stated, "Actually it would have been fine with me." Watch it:

But while Kirk suggested it somehow wasn't his decision, the Seals campaign made clear yesterday that they were more than willing to debate the GOP incumbent on NBC 5's airwaves. From communications director Elisabeth Smith:

"Dan believes that it is important for voters in the 10th district to see where he and Mark Kirk differ on the issues, which is why he agreed to appear jointly with Kirk on City Desk. This is not the first time that a joint appearance has fallen through. Unfortunately, Mark Kirk continues to do everything in his power to run fast and hard from his record of voting nearly 90% of the time with Republicans and supporting President Bush's failed policies in Congress."

Kirk also told viewers that he "hopes everybody watches" his joint appearance with Seals before the Tribune editorial board last week. But as far as I can tell, the only coverage of that debate is this article, which focused on Kirk's comments about Sarah Palin. I've been unable to find any video of the joint appearance on the Tribune website or elsewhere. (If the video is out there somewhere, please leave the link in comments.)

Later in the interview, Marin asked Kirk about his initial support for the Iraq war. He responded by blaming the "faulty intelligence":

While plenty of bad intelligence did indeed surface in the run-up to the Iraq war, Kirk's answer omits a crucial part of the story: how the Bush administration suppressed the intelligence community's doubts about certain prewar claims and how they used highly questionable, alternative intelligence sources to make their case for war. For more on that story, read this Media Matters piece I penned in December 2005. Meanwhile, 10th District blogger Ellen Beth Gill offers her own rebuttal.

Seals Raises $700,000 In 3rd Quarter

Josh Kalven — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 08:07:12 -0700

After GOP Rep. Mark Kirk last week reported raising $850,000 during the third quarter, Democratic challenger Dan Seals announced some impressive numbers of his own this morning. From a press release:

Today, Democratic Congressional Candidate Dan Seals' campaign reported that it had raised over $700,000 in the 3rd financial quarter, posting their strongest quarterly numbers yet. While Mark Kirk's fundraising stalled—he reported raising less than he had during the 2nd financial quarter—Seals' campaign fundraising continued to build momentum, raising approximately $70,000 more than he had in the previous 3 month period.

On the tails of the Research 2000 poll released yesterday showing a six-point race, the Seals campaign has to be feeling pretty good today.

Research 2000 Poll Shows Seals Trailing By Only Six Points

Josh Kalven — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 14:45:12 -0700

On Friday's edition of WTTW's Chicago Tonight, the "Week In Review" panel discussed Illinois' tightest congressional races, specifically the contests in the 10th and 11th districts. While discussing the former, NBC5's Mary Ann Ahern described GOP Rep. Mark Kirk as "doing very well so far in the polls" vis-a-vis Democratic challenger Dan Seals. This left me scratching my head a bit because, over the past two months, we've seen only two polls out of the 10th, both of them internals. A poll commissioned by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee found Seals trailing Kirk by only seven in mid-August. Meanwhile, a poll paid for by the Kirk campaign in mid-September found the incumbent with a 22-point lead.

Well, now there's a new poll on the scene, commissioned by the liberal website Daily Kos and conducted by the nonpartisan Research 2000 between September 30 and October 1. It shows Kirk leading Seals by only six points, 44-38 percent.

As the Swing State Project noted after Kirk released his internal poll last month, the cross-tabs suggested the campaign was seriously oversampling Republicans:

The partisan breakdown of the [Kirk] poll is 35D-33R-29I. Labels and Lists pegs the district as 34D-21R-44I, and other internal Democratic numbers I've seen show Dems with a 7-point advantage here in terms of partisan identity.

The Research 2000 poll doesn't put the percentage of Independents quite as high as Labels and Lists. But compared to the Kirk poll, there are six percent more Independents sampled and six percent less Republicans, which surely contributed to the vastly different results. Here's the breakdown:

Democrats: 139 (35%)
Republicans: 115 (29%)
Independents/Other: 146 (36%)

Seals' TV ads over the last month should also have also helped him, particularly considering that Kirk began saturating the local airwaves about a month earlier.

Mark Kirk Flips, Votes To Extend Unemployment Benefits

Josh Kalven — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 13:10:58 -0700

Back in June, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk -- along with five other Republican members of Congress from Illinois -- voted against a Democratic bill to extend federal unemployment benefits by 13 weeks. At the time, Kirk explained that he wasn't against the idea of giving laid-off workers additional unemployment checks, but instead was concerned that the legislation would allow those who had been on the job for as little as two weeks to receive benefits for nine months. Kirk even claimed that by allowing folks with such limited work records to enter the unemployment system, the Democrats had doubled the cost of the bill.

As we pointed out at the time, Kirk's excuse made little sense because it completely overlooked the more strict eligibility requirements laid out by individual states. Indeed, if a worker in Illinois wanted to qualify for federal unemployment benefits for only two weeks worth of work, they'd first have to live for a year-and-a-half on about $4,000. And how much would they then receive from the federal government? Most likely, less than $50 per week.

Furthermore, in contrast to Kirk's claim that these deadbeats would greatly increase the cost of the measure, the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities pointed out that "the share of the additional benefits under the bill that would go to workers with very limited work records is almost surely miniscule."

We bring this up because yesterday Kirk voted in favor of a new bill to further extend the benefit program. I've looked over the language in the measure and see no provision that establishes a minimum employment length. As such, I'd love to hear Kirk's explanation for why he backed this type after referring to it as "crazy" several months ago. (EDIT: Having gone back and double-checked this, it turns out the bill passed on Friday is based off the unemployment benefits language in the FY 2008 Supplemental Appropriations Act, which does include the 20-week minimum requirement. Apologies for the mistake.)

Interestingly enough, the five other local GOP members who twice opposed the bill in June -- Donald Manzullo, Peter Roskam, John Shimkus, Judy Biggert, and Jerry Weller -- also supported it this time around.

Rep. Kirk: "I Don't Know" If Palin Is Qualified To Be Prez

Adam Doster — Wed, 01 Oct 2008 09:05:04 -0700

As we noted in the Early Bird, Rep. Mark Kirk is now expressing skepticism about John McCain's running mate. When asked if Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had the qualifications to become president, the North Shore Republican told the Tribune editorial board yesterday: "Quite frankly, I don't know." When pressed further, he told the assembled reporters "I would have picked someone different."

But one month ago, Kirk was signing a different tune.

Talking to the Tribune on September 1, he described himself as "encouraged" by the pick. In an September 2 interview on WLS' Don Wade And Roma In The Morning, Kirk praised the governor for her ethics crusading nature. Listen below:

Internal mp3

It seems to be a very much an ego-free zone for her … [T]he governor also took on the old corrupt Republican bulls in Alaska. Fired a bunch of them, some of them are now going to jail, including possibly Sen. Stevens. She seems pretty fearless on taking out the old guard. [...]

There's a lot of guts on both sides for McCain and Palin. So they've got their share of enemies. But sometimes you're marked in public life by who you've taken out. And certainly in the Oval Office and generally in an administration you want a fearless team.

One day before, on September 1, WIND's Big John Howell and Cisco Cotto asked Kirk about Palin's experience directly. Here's what the 10th District incumbent had to say:

Internal mp3

HOWELL: How can you convince me -- a guy who is not a far-right social conservative Republican -- to really consider her one heart beat away from the Presidency?

KIRK: She’s obviously an unknown figure, but she has had a rocket sled of a career already in Alaska. I think as governor, obviously she does have more executive experience -- ironically -- than the three other guys on the ticket. Her big asset, though, will be on the campaign. We have seen Sen. Obama now standing forth as a recognized national figure, but his greatest achievement has been his own campaign, and being able to command and defeat the electorate and push Hillary Clinton to the side. We now will look at Sarah Palin. She did very well in her first time out when she was nominated by Sen. McCain. It was a risky strategy.

Palin is no doubt drawing big crowds on the trail and volunteers to local McCain offices, but it's tough to say whether, on balance, she's been "a big asset" on the campaign. Her constant fumbling in recent interviews and broader reluctance to speak to reporters has turned off a lot of voters:

One of Palin's problems has been perceptions of her experience. In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll conducted during the first half of September, 61 percent said they did not think Palin — governor for less than two years and former small-town mayor — has the right experience to be president. That view has changed little in more recent surveys.

Polls also show Palin's image, while positive overall, has begun to erode. While an NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey in early September showed more people viewing her favorably than unfavorably by 20 percentage points, that gap faded to 6 points by last week. Similarly, her net positive rating in a Fox News-Opinion Dynamics poll shrunk from 27 points in early September to 11 points a week ago.

Freedom's Watch Drops $150K Into IL-10

Adam Doster — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 14:28:52 -0700

Last week, a spokesman for the conservative group Freedom's Watch told the Daily Herald that it was "fair to say" the organization would spend "substantial" resources attacking 10th District congressional challenger Dan Seals up until Election Day. Today, the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza defined "substantial":

In the past 10 days, Freedom's Watch has dropped more than $1.6 million on ads in six House races and two Senate contests. That spending comes after the group spent less than $40,000 on television ads between May and September, raising questions in many circles about whether the group would be a major factor in the fall election. [...]

Freedom's Watch spending
Colorado Senate: $659,212
Oregon Senate: $366,033
Alabama's 2nd district: $52,374
Illinois' 10th district: $155,298
Nevada's 3rd district: $115,510
New Jersey's 3rd district: $23,690
New Jersey's 7th district: $124,885
New Mexico's 1st district: $155,903

Keeping GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in office appears to be a top-priority of the neo-cons.

DCCC Poll Shows Seals Trailing By Seven In August

Josh Kalven — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 11:26:10 -0700

This afternoon, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released the results of a poll they conducted in mid-August, showing Democratic challenger Dan Seals trailing GOP Rep. Mark Kirk by seven points. This survey provides some contrast to the poll put out by the Kirk campaign last week -- conducted Sept. 10-11, with a 5.6 percent margin-of-error -- showing him with a commanding 22-point lead.

From the DCCC release:

A Global Strategy Group poll conducted August 17-19 of 400 likely voters with a 4.9% margin of error shows Dan Seals within striking distance of Congressman Mark Kirk 39%-46% with 14% undecided. After voters are informed with each candidates’ message and bio, Dan Seals comes out ahead 45%-40%.

At the presidential level, Illinois Senator Barack Obama leads the district 51%-36% over Senator John McCain. President Bush’s approval rating in the district is an abysmal 21%.

“Republican Congressman Kirk is clearly extremely vulnerable for voting with his Republican leadership 88% of the time,” said DCCC Midwest Regional Press Secretary Ryan Rudominer. “This race represents a clear choice between Barack Obama and Dan Seal’s real change agenda versus Mark Kirk and the failed Bush-McCain more of the same agenda. Facing an economic disaster, skyrocketing unemployment and President Bush’s $12 billion a month war plan, Illinois' 10th district voters are hungry for leaders like Dan Seals, who will turn the page on the failed Bush-Kirk policies of the past.”

In related news, here is the Seals campaign's latest ad: